The real estate market in the first quarter of 2025 witnessed the return of local "land fever" phenomena in some localities. The Ministry of Construction said that the number of land transactions has increased sharply, causing selling prices to escalate in many areas such as Bac Giang, Phu Tho, Ninh Binh, Thai Binh, Hung Yen, Hai Phong and Dong Nai.
This sudden explosion not only poses a risk of speculation but also warns of the possibility of a real estate price bubble.
According to the Ministry of Construction, the total volume of land transactions in the first quarter of this year reached 101,049 successful transactions, up 16.4% over the fourth quarter of 2024 and up 2.5% over the same period last year.
In the context of the real estate market gradually recovering after a long period of stagnation, the increase in transactions is considered a positive signal. However, in some localities, the increase in land prices exceeds the actual supply and demand law, causing concerns about the risk of virtual fever due to speculative psychology.
In Bac Giang, land prices in some areas of Bac Giang City have increased by over 20% in just the first three months of the year. In Phu Tho, many urban areas that have been abandoned for many years such as Van Phu, Trung Vuong, Tho Son, Thanh Mieu or Gia Cam have suddenly become bustling again with selling prices increasing by 20-30% compared to the end of 2024.
In Hai Phong, land prices in Kien Thuy, An Dong, Thuy Nguyen areas also increased by 15-20%. Notably, in Dong Nai, which is traditionally a "hot spot" for land, the selling price in some areas of Nhon Trach district has increased by 20-30%, some places even by over 40%.
Experts say that this wave of price increases mostly comes from unofficial information surrounding the arrangement and merger of provincial administrative units. Areas rumored to become new administrative centers will immediately become the focus of attracting investment cash flow, despite incomplete infrastructure and utilities. Excessive expectations have created opportunities for speculators to manipulate prices, pushing selling prices up for profit.
In reality, in many previous "land fever" periods, areas with sudden price increases due to planning or administrative rumors have quickly turned to plummet after the market has cooled. Investors who "surf" and do not have time to sell goods are often the ones who suffer the consequences.
In the current context, although the market is showing signs of recovery, liquidity is not really sustainable, credit interest rates are still high, so chasing the land fever can become a double-edged sword.
To prevent the risk of uncontrolled development, many localities have proactively issued notices to warn people to be cautious with unverified information, while strengthening control of transaction activities, tightening land division, changing land use purposes and granting new projects.
The Ministry of Construction also recommends that people and investors need to be alert, only invest in areas with clear legal status, complete infrastructure and suitable for real housing needs.
In addition, the Ministry's report also shows that land inventories are still high, with more than 11,685 unconsumed land, accounting for nearly 50% of total real estate inventories. This shows that real demand has not kept up with the speed of supply and price increase of the market.
Meanwhile, increasing land prices may cause a domino effect, causing input costs for housing projects to increase, reducing the ability to access housing for low-income people.
In the coming time, the Ministry of Construction will continue to coordinate with localities to strictly control land projects, especially projects with signs of unusual price increases. At the same time, the Ministry also proposed solutions such as collecting multiple transfer taxes, taxing land value differences between transactions to limit speculation and ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market.
