The Champions League with a new format, with an increased number of teams, will officially kick off today, September 17. Before the matches took place, statistics company Opta predicted the championship opportunities of the teams.
The most promising candidate to win the Champions League
Despite a painful exit from the league last year, Man City are still considered the team with the most chances of winning the championship this year (25.3%), according to the forecast of the super may Opta.
It is not difficult to argue with Man City as the most promising candidate. Excluding penalty shootouts, they are unbeaten in their last 23 Champions League games, with 16 wins, and if they avoid defeat in their first two games of the 2024-25 season, they will equal a team's longest unbeaten run in the competition's history, equal to Man United's 25-game unbeaten run in the past.
Pep Guardiola is a guarantee for Man City's strength. Among coaches who have played 50 or more games in the competition, he has the highest win percentage (63.7%) with 109 wins in 171 games.
Man City are predicted to have a 95% chance of reaching the round of 16 - the highest rate among the 36 teams. According to opa, Haaland and his teammates have a 55% chance of reaching the semi-finals, 39.9% of the finals and 25.3% of the championship.
defending champions Real Madrid are rated with an 18.2% chance of defending their title, based on a review from 10,000 Opta data simulations. The addition of Mbappe helps Real increase their chances, while bringing more challenges to their opponents. Mbappe has scored 48 goals in this competition despite not being 25 years old.
There is a 48.9% chance that Real Madrid will reach the semi-finals for the 5th consecutive season, while their chances of reaching the finals are also very high - 31.6%.
Inter (10.9%) are the only remaining team rated at more than 10% of the Champions League title this season.
Simone Inzaghi's team was defeated by Atletico Madrid in the previous round of 16, but it was an extremely tense match decided by a penalty shootout. Inter easily won Serie A glory last season, as well as reaching the final of the Champions League in the 2022-2023 season. They lost to Man City in an unlucky match.
Arsenal, Barcelona cannot be underestimated
After the above 3 teams, the championship ti lech of the teams behind is quite balanced. According to Opta, Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Liverpool and PSG are also predicted to win the UEFA Champions League this season, with the ty lech ranging from 4.1% to 6.3%.
Arsenal emerged as the team with the fourth potential championship in this year's tournament. Statistics show that Arsenal are the team that has played the most matches in the C1/Champions League Cup but has not won won (7).
However, the London team has also played quite steadily, regularly passing the group stage in the last 15 appearances. According to Opta, Arsenal have a 76.5% chance of reaching the round of 16, a 13.2% chance of reaching the final and a 6.3% chance of winning the championship.
Barcelona with the presence of Robert Lewandowski - who scored 94 goals in the history of the Champions League - is rated with an 83.3% chance of passing the group stage and a 5.2% chance of winning the championship.
This year, Barca is led by Hansi Flick. With the team helping them win all 5 matches in La Liga, the Spanish team is predicted to go deep in this year's Champions League.
On the other hand, Opta assessed Celtic, Dinamo Zagreb, Salzburg, Sturm Graz, Brest, Young Boys, Slovan Bratislava... as having no chance to win the championship. The rate for them is 0%.
