In the newly published report, SGI Capital - the open-end fund management company The Ballad Fund - mentioned that the VN-Index has increased continuously for 5 months if counting the April bottom, with an increase of nearly 60% without any major correction of over 10%. This is one of the fastest and strongest increases in the history of the Vietnamese stock market with the main impetus coming from domestic cash flow.
The increase assessed by SGI Capital as "very hot" reflected many expectations and supporting information. Therefore, this unit believes that the market has the potential for a 10-15% correction of the VN-Index.
As of the end of August, the general index closed above 1,682 points. Thus, the market is at risk of being pulled back around 1,430-1.514 points. If the first weekend of September is the milestone, the VN-Index will adjust to 1,417-1,500 points.
To explain the above assessment, experts from SGI Capital provided data that the VN-Index as of the end of the first week of September had increased by 35%, ranking in the top 3 in the world in terms of growth performance for terms of 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and from the beginning of the year. Trading value has remained at VND40,000-70,000 billion per session for many weeks, the highest among ASEAN markets.
However, the macro context last month began to have negative changes such as government bond interest rates increasing, interbank interest rates maintaining a high level above 4%. At the same time, the USD has increased by 3.5% against the VND, putting psychological pressure on the stability of the currency as well as the macro, becoming an important reason why the Vietnamese stock market is constantly being net sold by foreign investors compared to other countries in the region. Combined with exchange rate pressure, interest rates and the increase in gold prices, newly paid cash flow has stagnated at the end of August, causing trading value to decrease.
On the contrary, the record high margin loan amount from the second quarter of 2025 may continue to increase sharply in the third quarter of 2025, causing the margin to cash, capitalization and liquidity ratio to continue to reach new highs, posing a potential risk of selling pressure when the market adjusts deep enough.
Unlike the period of 2023-2024 - when the trading market was gloomy, most of margin increased due to loan transactions of large shareholders and business owners to serve business capital needs. Currently, margin is used more by individual and institutional customers to serve the need to optimize short-term investment and trading profits. Portfolios restructuring and risk management will be a priority at this stage so that we have room to prepare for other major opportunities ahead," emphasized SGI Capital experts.
Sharing the same view, in the newly published September strategy report, SSI Securities Company (SSI Research) also forecasts in a cautious scenario, a strong correction may take place in the period of September - early October, with an amplitude that may be greater than the corrections since the beginning of April.
Some factors that may force the market to adjust include increased exchange rate pressure. In addition, the third quarter business results announcement season is often less vibrant and profit-taking pressure after a strong recovery in August can also lead to an adjustment.
" Statistics show that the market often experiences corrections above 7% in an uptrend, especially after a rapid increase of over 20% within 3 months. Currently, the VN-Index has increased by 50% in the past 3 months and has not recorded any decrease of over 4.5% since the beginning of the month. Therefore, a strong correction in the coming time, if it does, could open up opportunities for stock accumulation for a long-term investment vision, the SSI report stated.
