Early adjustment pressure occurred in the second half of this morning's session, December 9, and the VN-Index at times retreated to near 1,740 points before stopping the fall afterwards. In the afternoon session, many investors took even more profits, causing the VN-Index to fluctuate strongly with liquidity recording the best session in more than a month.
At the end of the session on December 9, the HOSE floor had 93 stocks increasing and 234 stocks decreasing. VN-Index decreased by 6.57 points to 1,747.17 points. The total trading volume reached more than 973.8 million units, worth VND 29,492.7 billion. Foreign investors' transactions are a minus point when they net sell about VND 2,541 billion.
VIC shares are still the main pillar for the market, although they could not keep the ceiling, they also increased by +4.8% to VND160,000/share. Many stocks in the VN30 group decreased quite strongly with LPB leading when they lost 5% to VND 44,000, HDB -3.8% to VND 31,500, VPB -3.2% to VND 28,750, VJC -3.1% to VND 200,000.
Another notable thing is that SHB shares when matched with a skyrocketing order and far exceeded the rest of the market when there were more than 88.5 million units.
According to investors, this is the result of the "green skin, red heart" situation that has occurred over the past time. In the series of 9 consecutive increases in the Vietnamese stock market, the VN-Index approached the old peak in mid-October. However, sadly, the accounts of many investors are still in a state of loss. The strong increase focused only on a few single pillar stocks while the rest decreased.
This makes the index not fully reflect market developments. VN-Index continues to increase, but the accounts of most investors are being eroded every day. Those who arrived late and followed the upgraded wave in early October may even be suffering heavy losses even though the market is very close to the 1,800 point mark.
With stocks rising sharply, profit-taking pressure is not too surprising. This will be one of the challenges for the market. However, when many large stocks have retreated to attractive valuation zones, equivalent to the VN-Index at 1,500, even 1,200 points, the market is expected not to adjust too deeply if cash flow is concentrated to other groups.
According to Tien Phong Securities' forecast, in the final period of 2025, VN-Index is likely to enter a period of accumulation sideways with an amplitude of 1,7001,800 points, corresponding to the base scenario with a probability of 70%. With this scenario, investors should maintain a cash ratio of 50%.
In a more positive scenario, with a probability of 15%, the VN-Index can surpass the resistance zone of 1,800 points and reach the mark of 1,905 points. The upward momentum will come from cash flow spreading to large-cap stocks, creating a sustainable growth direction. The appropriate cash ratio for this scenario is about 40%.
Conversely, in the case of negative developments (15% probability), profit-taking pressure and cautious psychology can cause the index to adjust to the support zone of 1,580 points. This bottom is expected to attract bottom-fishing cash flow, helping the market balance again. The proportion of cash should be increased to 60% to protect against risks.
The market analysis and assessment team is still in a reasonable and attractive zone. However, pressure from interest rates and exchange rates along with declining liquidity will cause the recovery momentum to continue to differentiate. Therefore, investors should reduce attention to the general index, focusing on industries and stocks with good fundamentals, high profit prospects in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026, and valuations that are still attractive or benefit from positive information on exports and public investment in December.
