During the trading week before the holiday, from August 26 to August 30, 2024, the Vietnamese stock market did not have many fluctuations in both price and liquidity. The VN-Index maintained a tug-of-war situation before the resistance level of 1,300 points, closing the weekend at 1,283.87 points.
In terms of capitalization, large-cap stocks are attracting the attention of cash flow, especially in sectors with strong developments such as banking (ACB, MBB, STB, VCB), technology (FPT). Meanwhile, the mid- and small-cap groups show high differentiation, with some individual investment stories such as the shipping group benefiting from high freight rates, or the rubber group benefiting from rising rubber raw material prices.
Contrary to the positive developments of the general market, foreign investors' transactions have not shown any signs of improvement as strong net selling pressure has been maintained throughout the months, except for January 2024 when net buying was maintained at over VND 1,100 billion. Meanwhile, the lowest net selling month was February, reaching nearly VND 1,500 billion, and May was the strongest net selling month with a value of over VND 19,000 billion.
In the first 8 months of the year, foreign investors net sold 64,426 billion VND, equivalent to more than 2.5 billion USD, nearly 18 times higher than the same period last year, especially surpassing the net selling record of the whole year - 2021 with a net selling value of more than 60,000 billion VND.
In the short term, foreign selling pressure will ease as investment funds complete their portfolio restructuring. In addition, the US is preparing to lower interest rates, which could create favorable conditions for capital flows back to Vietnam.
Regarding the movement trend, looking back at August, the Vietnamese stock market has slowed down, fluctuating within a narrow range throughout the trading sessions last week, after a positive recovery.
Besides, after the positive recovery of the previous 2 weeks, the general index is getting closer to the old short-term peak around 1,285 - 1,300 points, an area that has not been conquered many times in the past. Accordingly, the slow movement in the past week is considered necessary, a careful preparation before moving forward to conquer the strong resistance zone.
HSC Securities Company commented that, in terms of opportunities, the resistance level of 1,300 points caused the index to adjust many times, but the recovery effort was shown more and more clearly and fiercely, when the system of bottoms continued to form higher than the previous bottom. The possibility that the Fed is about to lower interest rates and the expectation that the domestic market will receive similar information and events will support trading sentiment and the 1,300 point level is expected to be successfully conquered soon. On the contrary, important support levels at 1,280 points and stronger at 1,260 points will be buffer zones to maintain positive signals for short-term positions.
Kafi Securities Company also forecasts that after the National Day holiday on September 2, the VN-Index will test the 1,300-point threshold, but closely monitoring cash flow and selecting stocks that are targeted by cash flow will be the key to short-term investor success. Some industry groups have their own stories that can be noted, such as the market upgrade theme of securities stocks such as SSI, HCM, VCI, or the promotion of credit growth along with a more open legal corridor of banking and real estate stocks.
