The VN-Index in terms of scores is having extremely positive developments with 8 consecutive sessions of increase as well as approaching the historical peak, but most investors are going through a rather uncomfortable "green skin, red heart" period.
According to experts, there is no guarantee that the return to the 1,700-point mark this time will be solid. The first reason is that the liquidity push has decreased sharply since the time VN-Index reached nearly 1,800 points about 2 months ago. According to statistics from Vietstock Finance, the trading value on HOSE in November only reached VND 22.7 trillion/session, while the average of the previous 4 months was up to VND 38 trillion/session.
It can be said that liquidity is a major obstacle to the progress of the VN-Index in recent times. Liquidity last week improved compared to the previous sell-off panic period but was still significantly lower than the peak of the year and the average of the previous quarter. This reflects a less pessimistic sentiment, bottom-fishing cash flow and institutional cash flow returning, but the majority of individual investors are still cautious after the previous period of heavy losses.
There are three main reasons for the lack of liquidity to explode commensurate with the index's increase. First, VN-Index is currently approaching the old peak, valuation is no longer really cheap. The market's P/E trailing has risen around 16-17 times, higher than the average of some regional markets and higher than the recent historical average, while profit growth in 2025-2026 is expected to recover but still comes with many unknowns.
Second, the level of differentiation is very high, the group of stocks that benefits directly from their own story, typically Vingroup, some leading banks and retailers have increased sharply, while many small and medium-sized stocks, or industry groups that were once expected such as stocks, speculative real estate, materials, etc. have not yet attracted clear cash flow, causing many investors to hesitate in chasing prices.
Third, macro factors and year-end currencies also create an invisible layer of resistance. In that context, institutional investors tend to prioritize high-quality stocks with good liquidity, while individual investors reduce the use of margin compared to the previous period, making it difficult for general liquidity to explode even when the index goes up.
According to analysts, current liquidity reflects an increasing state but is cautious, cash flow is going ahead in leading stocks, but the majority of marketplaces are still watching, ready to participate when reasonable corrections appear or when there are clearer confirmation signals of a new sustainable price level.
Regarding the trend of the stock market in the coming time, it can be seen that although it has successfully created a bottom, experts are still cautious and believe that the stock market is unlikely to break out right from now until the end of the year, but need more time to accumulate.
The high-probability scenario is that the index can continue to increase, entering the resistance zone of 1,7501,760 points and then a technical adjustment beat appears, with the zone of 1,7101,730 points acting as a support zone, intertwined with fluctuations, consolidating importantly for the current uptrend.
If the correction happens early in the beginning of the week, it is likely to activate the low demand pressure to return, thereby creating better room for the VN-Index to gradually approach the target area of 1,800 points in the remainder of December.
Regarding new disbursement, experts recommend that investors should avoid beta stocks such as banks, securities or real estate because the amount of goods stuck above is quite large and requires a lot of recovery time.
Regarding the general score, VN-Index is too affected by Vingroup, so investors do not need to pay attention but focus on the portfolio and developments of each group of stocks they are holding, promoting risk management. Investors who have missed the bottom should not try to buy, but should determine that the new market level has moved to a higher area.
