In the East Asia and Pacific Economic Update Report for April 2025, the World Bank (WB) forecasts that Vietnam's real GDP will grow by 5.8% in 2025.
According to the WB, in 2024, Vietnam's economy has recovered impressively thanks to strong external demand, helping exports of goods and services increase by 15.5%. The real estate sector also recorded signs of improvement thanks to more attractive home loan interest rates and increased supply for new projects, creating momentum for domestic private investment.
Positive developments have helped the labor market improve significantly. Employment growth in the manufacturing and processing industry increased to 3.4% (compared to the same period last year) in November 2024, compared to a decrease of 2.3% a year earlier. Real income increased by 4.8%, significantly higher than the 1.3% in 2023, thanks to improved labor market conditions and increased public sector salaries. However, income growth has not completely shifted to domestic consumption due to the high savings rate, reaching 37.2% in 2024.
The World Bank believes that as an import-export-oriented economy (total import-export turnover equivalent to nearly 170% of GDP), the Vietnamese economy is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global trade policy.
The World Bank warned that external risks - such as adverse changes in trade policy, lower-than-expected global growth rates and high uncertainty levels in global policies - could slow exports as well as private investment flows, including foreign direct investment (FDI).
The World Bank predicts that Vietnam's medium-term growth prospects are still positive, with estimated GDP increasing back to 6.1% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027. To realize this potential, Vietnam needs a more stable international economic environment, in parallel with domestic reform efforts to improve productivity, invest in human capital and greening the economy.
Previously, in early April, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasted that Vietnam's GDP will increase by 6.6% in 2025 and reach 6.5% in 2026, after a strong increase of 7.1% in 2024.
The report stated that global trade tensions could affect Vietnam's export-oriented manufacturing sector this year. Although the total import-export turnover in the first quarter of 2025 reached 202.52 billion USD, up 13.7% over the same period last year, ADB forecasts that the growth rate of commodity trade will slow down to about 7% in both 2025 and 2026.
Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty - ADB Country Director in Vietnam assessed that strong trade growth, export production recovery and active FDI inflows are the main driving forces to boost Vietnam's economy in 2024.
However, new tax policies from the US and current global uncertainties could pose a major challenge for growth this year, Chakraborty said.
Experts recommend that Vietnam continue to increase added value in the global supply chain to minimize economic risks. In the context of changing the world economy, Vietnam's role in the global value chain is also shifting. Therefore, clearly identifying challenges and barriers is a key factor in planning a long-term development strategy.
