The Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) shows that, at tomorrow's operating session (Thursday, November 21), gasoline prices will continue to decrease by 0.3 - 1.6% if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.
According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet - VPI's data analysis expert, VPI's gasoline price forecasting model shows that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline is likely to decrease by VND 255 (1.3%) to VND 19,195/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by VND 201 (1%) to VND 20,399/liter.
VPI's model predicts that this period, diesel prices may decrease by 1.6% to VND18,277/liter, kerosene prices are forecast to decrease by 0.9% to VND18,804/liter, and fuel oil may only decrease slightly by 0.3% to VND15,948/kg.
VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this time.
On the world market, at 7:00 a.m. on November 20, Brent oil price increased by 0.01 USD, equivalent to 0.01%, to 73.31 USD/barrel; meanwhile, WTI oil price increased by 0.23 USD, equivalent to 0.33%, to 69.39 USD/barrel.
Oil prices continued to rise as tensions over the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated late last week. Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Marquee, said that so far, Russian oil exports have had little impact, but oil prices could rise further if Ukraine targets more oil infrastructure.
According to the latest forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply will exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2025, even if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major non-OPEC producers (OPEC+) maintain their production cuts.
In addition, instability in global financial markets is also a factor affecting oil prices, as investors are concerned about the speed and extent of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices have increased 21 times and decreased 24 times. Oil prices have increased 20 times and decreased 25 times.
On November 20, the retail price of gasoline announced by Petrolimex in the market of region 2 (far from ports, warehouses, factories) is as follows: RON 95-V gasoline 21,580 VND/liter, RON 95-III gasoline 21,010 VND/liter, E5 RON92 gasoline 19,830 VND/liter, diesel oil 19,190 VND/liter, kerosene 19,350 VND/liter and fuel oil (wholesale price) from 16,320 - 19,180 VND/liter.
