Raising Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 2025
A new report released by HSBC has adjusted Vietnam's full-year growth forecast to become the fastest growing economy in ASEAN after the Statistics Office announced a 8.23% increase in GDP in the third quarter. According to HSBC, the above results are "surprisingly" because they are much higher than the market's expectation of 7.2%.
In response to GDP growth in the third quarter, HSBC raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 7.9% (up from the previous forecast of 6.6%) and 6.7% for 2026. Thus, HSBC's forecast is currently the highest among international organizations and is approaching the target set by Vietnam of over 8%.
In further analysis, HSBC said that the above growth results demonstrate the solidity of Vietnam's industries with an outward trade trend, reflected in the manufacturing and trade sectors, in the context of unpredictable fluctuations in the international trade environment.
Accordingly, industrial production in the third quarter increased by 10% compared to the same period last year, while exports and imports both grew by nearly 20%. The data also shows that the main commercial driver of Vietnam in recent times is electronics products.
HSBC's report shows that while exports from other ASEAN countries to the US have decreased slightly, Vietnam's trade results have maintained double-digit growth. Notably, the scale of the trade surplus in the third quarter was double the first half of the year thanks to increased surpluses with partners other than the US.
The domestic situation is also stable with many improvements in retail sales and tourism leading the ASEAN recovery. Super infrastructure projects have helped increase construction activities. Experts from this unit believe that Vietnam still has potential for further growth if public investment disbursement accelerates, the report said.
Forming a new growth model
In an interview with Lao Dong, Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang assessed that Vietnam's current growth model is not only based on exports or public investment as before, but has begun to form new driving forces from institutional reform, digital transformation, and private economic development. Thanks to that, the processing - manufacturing industries, high-tech agriculture, tourism and logistics services all have steady growth, creating a solid foundation for the year-end breakthrough.
"I predict that with a positive scenario, GDP could reach 8.2-8.5% this year, in which the fourth quarter of 2025 could reach more than 9%" - Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang predicted.
Previously, in the report on Vietnam's economic prospects just released near the end of September, the global market and economic research department of UOB Bank (Singapore) said that Vietnam's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased sharply by 7.96% over the same period in the second quarter of 2025 (compared to the adjustment of 7.05% in the first quarter of 2025), surpassing the forecast of 6.85% by Bloomberg news agency and 6.1% of UOB itself before.
"Despite risks and instability from tariffs, the Vietnamese economy still shows resilience and dynamism. After an impressive growth rate of 7.5% in the first half of 2025 and expectations of increased support from public investment, we have adjusted the GDP growth forecast for the whole year to 7.5%" - UOB forecast.
According to information from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week, despite increased fluctuations both domestically and internationally, Vietnam's economic growth still shows resilience, thanks to support policies.
The IMF forecasts that Vietnam's economic growth will slow down to 6.5% in 2025 and continue to slow down in 2026.
