cooling inflation data drives oil prices to increase sharply

Nguyễn Thúy |

In the trading session on April 13 (Vietnam time), oil prices increased sharply due to the cooling of US inflation data, fuelling hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon end the interest rate increase cycle.

Specifically, Brent oil price increased by 1.72 USD to 86.89 USD/barrel - the highest level since the end of January. While US WTI oil prices increased by 1.73 USD, equivalent to 2.1%, to 82.26 USD/barrel - the highest level in 5 months.

Rapidly falling US inflation information has investors betting on the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will quickly reverse monetary policy, from tightening to loosening to support the economy.

Reuters cited data from the US Department of Labor showing that the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% last month. In the 12 months up to March 31, the CPI increased by 5%, the smallest annual increase since May 2021.

Meanwhile, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute, the country's crude oil reserves increased by about 380,000 barrels last week, contrary to the prediction of a decrease of 600,000 barrels that experts gave in a Reuters survey.

The increase in oil prices was also supported by declining supply data from Russia.

According to Bloomberg, the flow from Russian ports is down 1.24 million barrels per day. This raises concerns about the impact of Russia's oil production cuts, increasing the risk of supply shortages and price support.

In addition, oil prices also received support from signs of fuel demand in India - the world's third largest oil consumer. Accordingly, in March, India's fuel consumption increased by 5% compared to the same period last year, to a record 4.83 million barrels of oil per day.

Fatih Birol - Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) - said that the global oil market may witness shortages in the second half of 2023, which will push oil prices higher.

Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, said that if oil prices exceed $90/barrel, oil prices could even reach $100/barrel this year.

Domestic retail prices of petroleum on April 13 are specifically as follows: E5 RON 92 gasoline is not more than VND 23,173/liter; RON 95 gasoline is not more than VND 24,245/liter; Diesel is not more than VND 20,149/liter; kerosene is not more than VND 19,739/liter; mazut is not more than VND 15,194/kg.

Nguyễn Thúy
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