Oil prices remain below $80/barrel

Nguyễn Thúy |

In the trading session on December 26 (Vietnam time), oil prices stagnated but remained high due to concerns about disruption of transportation activities across the Red Sea.

Specifically, Brent oil price is trading at 78.87 USD/barrel, while WTI oil is trading at 73.61 USD/barrel.

According to a report by Bloomberg, oil shipments in the Red Sea have fallen more than 40% for the week compared to the daily average of the previous three weeks.

At the same time, oil supply is still limited as most of the Middle East's crude oil is exported through the Hormuz Strait.

However, up to now, some shipping companies have said they have planned to re-route ships to avoid attacks in the Red Sea area.

Re routeing commercial vessels also increases risk insurance fees. According to analysts, if oil prices do not increase due to concerns about supply disruption, they may also increase due to changes in transportation routes.

Meanwhile, oil prices were under pressure after Angola announced its departure from OPEC amid disagreements over the country's oil production quotas for 2024.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts global oil demand to increase by 1.1 million barrels/day next year. Meanwhile, OPEC expects demand to increase by 2.25 million barrels/day in early 2024.

According to analysts, although OPEC cut production in the first quarter of 2024, supply for the year will still be abundant due to stability from Brazil, Guyana, Norway and Canada and increased output from the US.

According to Goldman Sachs, in 2024, Brent oil prices will average $80-81/barrel. The IEA forecasts Brent oil prices at $82.57/barrel.

In addition, Barclays forecasts an average oil price of $93/barrel, while S&P Global believes that $85/barrel is appropriate.

According to Euronews, entering 2024, global economic indicators are not very optimistic and there is a possibility of recession. Thus, oil prices in 2024 will have more potential to decrease than increase.

This week, some signs show that supply may decrease slightly when the number of oil and gas drilling rigs of the US oil and gas mining service company Baker hughe decreased for the second consecutive week.

Compared to this time last year, the number of drilling rigs in the US decreased by about 159 rigs, equivalent to 20% of output.

Domestic retail prices of petroleum on December 26 are specifically as follows: E5 RON 92 gasoline is not more than VND 21,199/liter; RON 95 gasoline is not more than VND 22,145/liter; diesel is not more than VND 19,524/liter; kerosene is not more than VND 20,494/liter; mazut is not more than VND 15,265/kg.

Nguyễn Thúy
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