Gold prices continued to hold steady around $4,193/ounce on the morning of December 9, after falling slightly in the previous session. Caution is everywhere as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in midweek - a major turning point in the US interest rate orientation in 2026.
Meanwhile, US Treasury yields increased slightly at the beginning of the week, reflecting investors' waiting mentality before a series of auctions and information from the Fed. The exchange rate is almost certain that the Fed will cut by 0.25 percentage points this time. However, instead of the three interest rate cuts as forecast at the beginning of the month, the market now only expects two more cuts before the end of 2026.
Mr. Kevin Hassett - the leading candidate for the position of Fed Chairman - said that it would be "irresponsible" to announce the interest rate plan for the next six months in advance. This statement makes investors more reserved, because high interest rates often put pressure on gold - non-interest-bearing assets.
However, gold's performance in 2025 is still impressive: Up nearly 60% since the beginning of the year, driven by record net buying by central banks and strong capital flows into ETFs. After peaking above $4,380 an ounce at the end of October, gold has maintained its high price zone thanks to expectations that the Fed will continue to loosen monetary policy next year.
However, experts from BMI - a unit of Fitch Solutions - warned that any signal that the Fed could temporarily suspend the interest rate cutting cycle could lose gold's momentum. According to them, this precious metal could fall below $4,000/ounce if the monetary easing cycle starting in 2024 begins to slow down.
As of 7:30 a.m. Vietnam time, gold was trading at $4,192.31/ounce, almost unchanged. Theungass moved sideways at 58.0934 USD/ounce, after falling slightly from a record of 69.3336 USD/ounce reached on Friday. The Bloomberg Dollar spot remained stable after increasing by 0.1% in the previous session, while palladium and platinum did not have many fluctuations.
Analysts say that after a strong breakout in 2025, gold is entering a new accumulation period. How the Fed acts in the next few months will play a decisive role: either boosting the rally towards $5,000/ounce in 2026, or triggering a correction when the cutting cycle slows down.
