Statistics from the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) show that in the past 2 months, real estate enterprises have not recorded any more individual corporate bond issuances. While new issuances are absent, real estate businesses still have to increase early bond buybacks.
In the first 3 months of 2025, real estate enterprises must spend nearly VND 12,000 billion to buy back bonds before maturity. The volume of early repurchase is higher than the new issuance volume, showing that real estate enterprises are mobilizing "adequate" capital from bond channels.
VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company released data showing that as of April 15, 2025, there were more than 90 enterprises on the list of late payment obligations or corporate bond principal according to the announcement of HNX.
It is estimated that the total outstanding individual corporate bond debt of these more than 90 enterprises is about more than VND 200,000 billion, accounting for about 16.5% of outstanding individual corporate bonds in the whole market. Most of these issuers are enterprises in the real estate group.
Regarding the bond lots maturing in the coming time, VIS Rating said that 7 out of 22 bond lots maturing in April 2025 are assessed to have weak credit records, of which 3 bonds have been late in paying interest. In the second quarter of 2025, it is estimated that VND 40,600 billion of individual corporate bonds will mature, of which VND 16,500 billion of maturity (40.7% of total value) belongs to the real estate group.
These figures show that real estate businesses are still in a state of great need for cash flow to settle debts. However, the market situation is not showing any improvement.
According to the real estate market report for the first quarter of 2025 published by Savills, in the first 3 months of the year, Ho Chi Minh City recorded about 800 apartments for first sale, along with more than 4,200 inventories from previous batches, bringing the total primary supply to 5,000 apartments, an increase of 2% over the same period last year.
However, the transaction volume on the market is still quite modest, reaching only 1,400 units, equivalent to an absorption rate of 28%. Notably, inventories are only consumed at a rate of about 23%, while new products have an outstanding absorption rate, reaching more than 61%.
The same trend is also happening in the townhouse segment. In the first quarter, Ho Chi Minh City had a total of 698 apartments for primary sale, but only 89 of them were new supply, accounting for only 13%. The absorption rate in this segment is only about 10%, with 69 apartments traded - mostly new products. Inventory continues to be ignored by buyers.
The latest statistics from VietstockFinance on 103 listed enterprises show that the value of inventory has reached more than VND 491,000 billion, a record high in more than 20 years.
Explaining the ability to absorb low inventory, Ms. Giang Huynh - Director of Research Department of S22M Savills HCMC said that the main reasons are high prices, large areas and unfavorable locations. These factors make it difficult for this product group to reach real buyers and investors.
Mr. Son Hoang - Deputy Director of Valuation and Consulting Knight Frank Vietnam added that more than 90% of inventories are currently in the mid-high-end segment, with an average selling price of about 3,648 USD/m2 (more than 91 million VND/m2), beyond the affordability of the majority of people.
In contrast, the basket of inventories in the affordable segment (under 55 million VND/m2) only accounts for about 10%, but mainly 3-bedroom apartments with large areas, bringing the total value of apartments to over 3 billion VND. And in the context of many economic fluctuations, buyers tend to look for options that suit their financial capacity. This makes high-priced inventory products even less attractive.
