The VN-Index recorded its fourth consecutive increase and surpassed the psychological threshold of 1,700 points. However, cash flow has not yet spread, and is still cautious about liquidity, which has not improved compared to the 20-session average, while in fact the score only comes from the contribution of a few large stocks, especially stocks under Vingroup.
VN-Index closed the session on December 2 with a increase of more than 15 points, thereby moving up to 1,717 points. Liquidity on HoSE has improved somewhat compared to the previous session, the matched value reached more than VND 20,100 billion. Regarding foreign transactions, the group of investors returned to net buy a total of VND652 billion in the whole market.
As mentioned, Vingroup shares returned to support, with VIC, although only increasing by nearly 2% to VND 275,000, contributing up to 1/3 of the positive points for VN-Index. While VHM increased slightly, VRE stood at the reference and VPL increased by more than 2% to VND 103,800. In addition, other significant bluechips such as SAB hit the ceiling price of +6.9% to VND52,400, VJC approached the ceiling price of +6.87% to VND217,900, GVR +3.9% to VND27,750 and TCB +3% to VND34,200.
A recent updated report by MB Securities (MBS) said that the seasonal factor in November has been effective even though the market decreased in the first week in a series of consecutive declines for 4 consecutive weeks since the peak of 1,800 points.
According to statistics, the probability of the market increasing in December is also quite high, in which the market has increased in both consecutive years. MBS believes that, combined with the seasonal factor, the market will be active in the second half of December when information helps converge.
Regarding cash flow factors, with cautious domestic cash flow, mainly due to the imbalance between the VN-Index and the portfolio status (the index goes sideways, the portfolio goes sideways), it is difficult to expect market liquidity to increase sharply next week, especially when the market is entering the psychological resistance zone around the threshold of 1,700 points.
According to MBS statistics, liquidity in the recovery direction of the past 3 weeks increased to only about VND18,800 billion matching orders on the HSX exchange compared to VND29,600 billion in the downward direction (3 weeks before). This shows that the recovery of the VN-Index is cautious, cash flow tends to shift to the group of manufacturing, exporting and commodity stocks instead of focusing on financial stocks (Banking, securities) and Real Estate.
Forecasting the basic scenario for the market this week, MBS is leaning towards the possibility that the market will create a accumulation zone around the threshold of 1,700 points with low liquidity, the support zone of 1,660 - 1,670 points, resistance of 1,720 - 1,730 points.
