Deposit interest rates increase, what about lending interest rates?
According to a survey by Lao Dong Newspaper, the average 3-month deposit interest rate has increased by about 0.23 percentage points compared to the beginning of 2024, while the 6-month term has remained almost unchanged. Notably, the 12-month term interest rate also increased slightly by 0.04 percentage points, showing that banks continue to adjust to attract long-term capital.
The banking group with the highest deposit interest rates is mainly small and medium-sized banks. Meanwhile, the Big 4 group (Vietcombank, BIDV, VietinBank, Agribank) still maintains interest rates at a lower level than the general level.
On the output interest rate side, banks continue to maintain high profit margins, due to exchange rate pressure, increasing bad debt and strong credit growth demand.
A survey of securities companies shows that most of them believe that in 2025, the State Bank will maintain a flexible monetary policy to balance between supporting the economy and controlling inflation. This may cause lending interest rates to remain stable or increase slightly, instead of decreasing as expected by businesses and borrowers.
The analysis team of Vietnam Maritime Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MSB) commented that in 2025, it is unlikely that there will be any policy interest rate cuts.
In addition, the recovery of production activities and the acceleration of public investment disbursement are expected to be important factors promoting credit growth, while increasing pressure on deposit interest rates.
Deposit interest rates increased sharply at the beginning of the year
According to the survey, many banks have adjusted their interest rates up since the beginning of 2025. Of which, KienLongBank has increased the interest rate for 12-month terms to 6.1%/year, and for 24-month terms to 6.3%/year. Eximbank also raised the highest mobilization interest rate to 6.8%/year for 24-36-month terms, maintaining its leading position in the market.
BVBank raised interest rates for 12-month terms to 6.05%/year, and for 36-month terms to 6.45%/year. NCB, VietBank, and Bao Viet Bank also increased interest rates for terms of 6 months or more, with increases ranging from 0.2-0.4%/year.
However, large banks such as Vietcombank, BIDV, VietinBank, and Agribank still maintain interest rates lower than the general level, fluctuating around 4.7-5%/year for a 12-month term.
Why are banks competing to increase interest rates at the beginning of the year?
Speaking to Lao Dong, Dr. Chau Dinh Linh - lecturer at the Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City - said that the increase in deposit interest rates at the beginning of the year by banks needs to be considered by group to better understand market movements. If a group of large banks with high profits and good capital safety maintains or reduces deposit interest rates, it reflects that the system's liquidity is still abundant. On the contrary, if a group of medium and small banks continuously adjusts interest rates upward, this shows the need to attract capital to ensure liquidity or serve business plans.
"Small banks tend to raise deposit interest rates to attract deposits from residents and businesses, while large banks are under less pressure due to their more stable capital sources. This is why at the beginning of this year, we saw many medium and small banks raising interest rates faster than large banks," said Dr. Linh.
In general, with the trend of strong increase in mobilization interest rates but no clear adjustment in lending interest rates, it is highly likely that output interest rates will not have a sharp decrease this year. This poses the problem of borrowing costs for businesses in the context of economic recovery but still facing many challenges.
Experts recommend that borrowers should consider choosing banks with preferential policies or promotional programs on interest rates, especially loan packages supporting small and medium enterprises to optimize financial costs in 2025.
