The market had a fairly positive recovery week, but the main contribution came from large-cap stocks, while liquidity decreased sharply, reflecting investors' caution with the current trend.
In the trading session on November 22, after two consecutive sessions of increase, the market shifted to a state of slight fluctuations due to increased selling pressure. The VN-Index once again challenged the 1,230-point mark. And just like before, after just breaking through this resistance level, the market quickly "turned around".
At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index increased by 9.53 points (+0.78%), to 1,228.1 points. Trading liquidity decreased by nearly 17% compared to the previous week.
A notable development last week was that at one point the VN-Index broke through the important 1,200-point mark. However, this is still a very strong psychological support level and has pulled cash flow back, helping the market recover. In particular, the leading role is still played by large-cap stocks, including some banking stocks, as well as a slight recovery signal in the securities company group - after being the group with the sharpest decline the previous week.
Foreign investors unexpectedly returned to net buying 25 billion VND in the shaky session on November 22, breaking the rhythm after about a month of strong net selling of hundreds of billions to thousands of billions of VND per session.
However, including the past week, foreign investors continued to have a strong net selling week of nearly 5,500 billion VND, with the focus still mainly on bluechip and large-cap stocks, in which VHM shares were net sold of more than 1,500 billion VND.
Mr. Petri Deryng - head of PYN Elite Investment Fund - the largest foreign fund in the Vietnamese stock market with total assets of about 22,000 billion VND, has just sent the latest message to investors after the recent recovery of the market.
The manager of PYN Elite Fund said that after Donald Trump's victory in the recent US presidential election, emerging markets experienced unwanted fluctuations when recording the third consecutive week of capital outflow from these markets.
The reason comes from two factors: the stronger US dollar attracts capital out of markets such as Asia, while investors in emerging markets are worried about the uncertainties related to the new tax policy that Mr. Trump is expected to implement. These new policies are assessed to slow down the flow of global trade and especially affect emerging markets.
However, PYN Elite estimates that the profits of listed Vietnamese companies are expected to grow by about 20% in 2024 and maintain the same level in 2025. Before the recent correction, the stock market was reasonably valued with a projected P/E of 10x in 2025.
PYN Elite believes that although recent adjustments are disappointing, the situation is not worrying and affirms that the current market has created an opportunity for the fund to take advantage of fluctuations and restructure its investment portfolio.
Looking back at history, the last two times VN-Index touched this valuation zone were around November 2023 and August 2024, equivalent to the 1,030 and 1,170 point zones, respectively. In both cases, we saw money flow immediately enter strongly and pull the index up in a V-shape and recover quickly.
This time, when VN-Index approaches the low P/E zone and the important technical support zone, there is a high possibility that it will also create a balance around here. Analysts say the market will have a recovery with large liquidity sessions, then balance again. The 1,200 point zone is likely to be the bottom of the current decline.
