Large-cap stocks dominate
According to Ms. Tran Ngoc Thuy Vy - analyst at Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Company, the stocks expected to benefit the most if the Vietnamese stock market is upgraded are all stocks in the FTSE Vietnam All-share portfolio with large capitalization, high liquidity, and more room for foreign investors.
Most notably are real estate stocks, banks, securities and food - beverage. In particular, HPG (Hoa Phat Group) with a capitalization of nearly VND 200,000 billion, is being ranked by FTSE as the highest proportion (12.72%) in the portfolio of beneficiary stocks. The remaining foreign ownership ratio is up to nearly 1.7 billion shares.
VIC, VHM, VRE (Vingroup and member companies): all have a foreign ownership ratio of less than 15%, with a capitalization scale of 65,000 billion to more than 400,000 billion VND.
SSI, VND, VCI, VIX ( chungcles): have top liquidity and the actual foreign ownership ratio is much lower than the maximum room of 100%.
STB, VCB, SHB (banking): all have room to own foreign stocks from tens to hundreds of millions, especially VCB still has about 659 million stocks that can be bought by foreign investors.
Ms. Vy commented that ETF capital flows into Vietnam after the upgrade will prioritize stocks that fully meet the criteria of capitalization, liquidity, foreign room and reasonable valuation.
Securities industry may benefit soon
Not only being able to buy in the index category, the securities industry group is considered to benefit directly if the market is upgraded.
According to Ms. Vy's analysis, attracting foreign capital will increase liquidity in the whole market, leading to demand for brokerage, deposit lending and self-employment activities. Major securities companies such as SSI, VND, HSC, VCI, SHS... all have good business growth results. Some codes such as SSI, VND, VIX, VCI are having attractive P/B and ROE compared to the industry average.
Meanwhile, the real estate group is accounting for the largest proportion in FTSE Vietnam (over 35%), with many stocks with a capitalization of over VND 10,000 billion, with large foreign room surplus such as K Human, PDR, VPI, TCH, DIG, SIP. This is a group that can strongly attract capital flows if the market is reclassified.
The banking group - a major pillar of the market also has room to open foreign rooms, especially with codes such as VCB, STB, SHB. With high liquidity and large capitalization, these banks are likely to enter the FTSE emerging index portfolio when officially upgraded.
For the food - beverage group such as VNM, MSN, DGC, DPM is also included in the list of potential stocks. These codes have foreign rooms up to 49 - 100% but the current actual ownership ratio is still much lower, creating room for disbursement.
