VN-Index closed the last trading week of November quite positively with 4/5 sessions increasing points, thereby recording the third consecutive recovery week. However, the results have come mainly from the support of a few major pillars, while the rest of the market still maintains a state of strong differentiation, even many industry groups almost do not benefit from the general recovery.
The stock market has rebounded from the 1,640-1 1,660 range after a week of sideways and advanced to the resistance zone of 1,700 points.
In terms of impact, the 10 stocks with the most positive impact brought a total of 16.27 points to the VN-Index in the last session of the week, VIC shares alone contributed more than 11 points. On the other hand, VCB, FPT and GEE were the stocks that caused the most pressure, taking away a total of 2.66 points from the index.
Regarding the trading value of foreign investors, this group of investors continued to sell net but the pressure decreased significantly. Of which, the two trading sessions on Wednesday and Friday last week unexpectedly returned to net buying. Accumulated after 5 sessions, foreign investors net sold VND730 billion in the whole market.
However, the most concerned issue at present is the large decline in market liquidity. In the past week, liquidity continued to be a negative point for the market when it did not show any significant improvement, reflecting cautious cash flow and mainly seeking leads instead of spreading widely.
According to statistics, the liquidity of the HOSE floor since the beginning of November 2025 has decreased by 30% compared to the average in October but is still higher by 66% over the same period. Accumulated from the beginning of 2025, the liquidity of the whole market reached VND 29,300 billion, up 38.7% compared to the average in 2024, and up 36% over the same period.
According to many experts, the recent liquidity decline stems from the convergence of both macro and market psychology.
Mr. Huynh Anh Huy, CFA, Director of Industry Analysis of Kafi Securities Company (CTCK) said that, considering the fundamental factors, there is currently no more information that strongly supports the upward trend. The quarterly business results announcement season has ended, causing the information flow from the business group to temporarily calm down. Meanwhile, important international macro variables - especially the Fed's monetary policy, US inflation and year-end trading in global financial markets - are all concentrated in late December, causing domestic investors to tend to wait before making major decisions.
The analysis department of VCBS Securities also gave some reasons to explain why liquidity is "disappearing". The biggest reason according to VCBS comes from the defensive mentality of individual investors since mid-August 2025, when the previous upward trend of the index gradually turned into fluctuations within the range of 1,600 - 1,700 points.
Secondly, the November period every year is often the time of lack of supporting information during the year when listed companies have completed the release of financial reports for the third quarter of 2025, and at the same time, expectations related to upgrading the Vietnamese stock market from frontier to emerging market according to FTSE's assessment have been realized before.
Third, the pressure to sell net to foreign investors is the direct cause of liquidity decline when foreign investors are not only simply withdrawing cash flow from the market, but also putting psychological pressure on domestic investors.
Fourth, technically, the VN-Index is in the supply-demand balance zone. The index is stuck between the support zone around 1,610 points and the strong psychological resistance zone at 1,700 points and this is the period of "resetting supply - demand". When the trend of a breakout or breaking the foundation is not clearly confirmed, large cash flows often choose to stand on the sidelines to observe, causing liquidity to decline.
Thus, investors are tending to wait for clearer macro signals or confirmation of positive technical trends in the medium and long term to trigger the return of cash flow as well as liquidity in the stock market.
