VN-Index just experienced its strongest decline in nearly 3 months when losing nearly 50 points and breaking through the 1,800 point mark. The decline of Vietnamese stocks is in sync with the correction trend of the world market when the "risk-off" state appears widely.
The most prominent thing in the past week was the strong increase in US government bond yields and the DXY index in the context of market concerns about inflationary pressure returning. This is also the main reason why global stock markets simultaneously adjusted.
According to experts' assessment, exchange rate and interest rate risks are still the two most worrying variables at the present time. The reason stems from the market starting to revalue the possibility that the Fed will maintain a higher interest rate level longer than expected, even excluding the scenario of interest rate reduction. This concern is driven by the risk of increased inflation when US-Iran tensions may create a supply shock in the energy market.
In addition, recent US economic data is also not weak enough for the Fed to switch to policy easing. The labor market still shows good resilience as the number of new jobs far exceeds analysts' expectations, while the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in the December 2026 meeting has now exceeded 80%.
Returning to the Vietnamese stock market, although the price level has been significantly discounted after the adjustment, bottom-fishing cash flow is still quite cautious. Liquidity did not increase sharply in the downward session, with the matched order value only around 16,000 billion VND, showing that investor sentiment is still leaning towards defense rather than strong disbursement.
The sharp and widespread decline directly affected the portfolio performance of investors. On social networking platforms and investment forums, the developments of the first session of the week created many diverse opinions. The simultaneous decline of stocks in the portfolio made many individual investors feel hesitant.
Commenting on the market situation in the short term, CSI Securities Company believes that with the current strong decline, the 1,760-point support level is highly likely to be tested by VN-Index in the next few sessions and also does not rule out the possibility that the inertia of decline will pull the index back to a deeper support level of 1,720 points.
At the present time, the new buying position is still quite risky, we continue to maintain a cautious view, still not rushing to bottom-fish. Patiently wait for VN-Index to test the support zone of 1,760 points or deeper than 1,720 points before returning to the exploration position with a small proportion", CSI Securities Company stated its opinion.
SHS Securities Company believes that most industry groups have a short-term or medium-term price trend of accumulation or decline. At the same time, liquidity only increases when prices fall sharply and liquidity decreases when recovering.
Investor sentiment is less optimistic, leading to short-term selling pressure. This continued in yesterday's session with stronger selling pressure, and more pessimistic investor sentiment. Currently, the relatively reasonable capitalization range of the entire market is about 75%/GDP 2025, corresponding to VN-Index in the 1,700-1,750 point range. Investors should limit sell-offs if the market continues to adjust and when the indices enter a short-term oversold state.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, predicts that the next developments after the deep decline session of VN-Index may get closer to the possibility of a technical recovery. However, if this recovery occurs, it is still within the existing short-term downward trend, instead of confirming that the market has returned to a strong upward phase.
Looking further, VN-Index is moving in a wide sideway channel for many months. This means that the stock market is not completely entering a long-term downward trend, but it is also not enough to return to a sustainable upward phase.
