According to the Earning Insight 2024 Annual Report recently released by Vietnam Report Joint Stock Company, business sentiment towards economic growth prospects for the whole year of 2024 is clearly improving. The survey results of this unit expect Vietnam's economic growth to gradually shift from modest scenarios to more positive ones.
In his assessment of Vietnam's macro economy and stock market at the end of October, Mr. Michael Kokalari - Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research at VinaCapital - said that Vietnam's outstanding export growth to the US this year will slow down next year because the US economy is likely to head towards a soft landing with GDP growth slowing down but not collapsing.
Slowing exports from Vietnam to the US will lead to a slowdown in manufacturing output growth, as the majority of products produced in Vietnam are sold to foreign customers and the US is Vietnam’s largest export market. However, exports or manufacturing output are not expected to actually decline next year as steady inflows of foreign direct investment ensure that more and more new factories start manufacturing and exporting products each year.
VinaCapital forecasts Vietnam to achieve 6.5% GDP growth in both 2024 and 2025, although it expects the growth structure to come from internal factors next year.
In its latest economic update on Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank forecast that Vietnam's macroeconomic data in October showed a growth adjustment compared to September. Standard Chartered raised Vietnam's 2024 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, from 6.0% previously.
"Although growth has slowed since the third quarter, it remains stable, with growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 reaching 6.9%," the report said.
In a recent report, HSBC bank forecasts that Vietnam's economy will grow by 7% in 2024, becoming the fastest growing economy in ASEAN and creating as much new GDP as the Netherlands.
HSBC Vietnam CEO Tim Evans said that Vietnam has achieved many impressive economic achievements in recent decades, rising to become one of the 40 largest economies in the world in terms of GDP and top 20 in terms of trade.
However, the world is changing rapidly with two main trends being digital transformation and climate change. This requires adaptability to ensure sustainable development.
Speaking with Lao Dong, Dr. Le Duy Binh - Director of Economica Vietnam - said that there is every reason to expect that Vietnam will achieve its economic growth target of 6.8-7% in 2024. Looking at the total demand of the economy, there are many positive factors in terms of import and export activities, growth of the manufacturing and processing industry, domestic consumption, etc.
However, according to this expert, issues such as inflation, disbursement of public investment capital and business performance still need to be monitored and have appropriate solutions.
