Vietnam's 10-month exports increased by 16.2%, far exceeding the whole year's target of 12%. In your opinion, is this increase sustainable?
- Up to this point, both in terms of export and import turnover, the forecast of the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that this year, Vietnam can achieve a total import-export turnover of about 900 billion USD - a new record for the economy and much higher than previous years. I expect this pace to continue to be maintained in the last months of the year, as growth is being supported by 3 factors.
First, it is the recovery of major economies such as the US, Europe and Japan. These economies are implementing many recovery measures, especially through somewhat loosening monetary policies to support economic growth and thereby increase the demand for import and export goods from Vietnam.
Second, the last months of the year are always the peak shopping season in the US, EU and Japan, with many economies being major trading partners of Vietnam. The demand for services during the Christmas and New Year seasons has increased sharply, attracting great purchasing power for items such as textiles, footwear, furniture, electronics, food, agricultural and forestry products, which are groups of Vietnamese goods with many strengths.
Third, the Vietnamese Dong this year has depreciated against the USD and some other foreign currencies. When the exchange rate fluctuates in this direction, Vietnamese goods become relatively cheaper, more competitive in price, thereby improving the competitiveness of export goods.
Based on the 10-month trend in 2025, what do you predict for Vietnam's export growth momentum in 2026?
- Vietnam's exports in the coming time need to pay more attention to items with high added value. First of all, it is necessary to continue to diversify the market, better exploit the markets in signed trade agreements, but not fully exploited.
Second, export activities are still leaning towards increasing turnover, while the added value of exported goods or domestic value in exported goods have not really been given top priority. In the current growth context, especially when the economy is transforming the growth model as well as aiming for high and sustainable growth in the coming years, it is especially important to increase the domestic value of exports - especially the contribution rate of domestic enterprises, suppliers of input components, input services, input equipment, raw materials, input materials for export production and processing.
In addition, it is necessary to strongly promote export production in the domestic business sector. Currently, FDI accounts for about 70% of export turnover, while domestic enterprises only contribute 30%. Therefore, improving the production capacity of domestic enterprises, especially in key industries and new industries, is an urgent requirement for Vietnam to establish a higher position in the global supply chain.
Finally, service exports must be focused on. Over the years, Vietnam has imported 9-14 billion USD worth of super services per year. Reducing the level of over-inflation and boosting service exports will help improve the balance of payments, increase total demand and create more room for sustainable growth.
In 2026, which spearhead should we prioritize to maintain export growth momentum as a driving force for the economic growth target of 10%?
- In 2026, to maintain export growth momentum and aim for the economic growth target of 10%, it is necessary to focus on four major priorities.
First, continue to diversify the market. Vietnam has signed many trade agreements but there are still many markets that have not fully exploited their potential. Second, it is necessary to focus on domestic added value. Only when the domestic value increases will the real added value stay with the economy. Third, it is necessary to promote the role of domestic enterprises, strengthen the linkage between domestic enterprises and FDI enterprises and the global supply chain... Finally, it is necessary to promote service exports, thereby narrowing super-service imports and supporting the overall balance of import and export on services of the economy.
Sincerely thank you!
