In 2025, 15 storms and 6 tropical depressions appeared in the East Sea area. Including 1 tropical depression and 7 storms directly affecting our country, including storm No. 1, storm No. 3, storm No. 5, storm No. 6, storm No. 10, storm No. 11 and storm No. 13. The 2025 storm season broke the previously set record in 2017 with 20 storms. Therefore, forecast information about the storm trend in 2026 is increasingly concerned.
The 205th storm season is likely to officially end. According to the monthly weather trend forecast bulletin from the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, forecasts for the period from now to January 20, 2026, there is little possibility of storms and tropical depressions appearing in the East Sea area.
According to multi-year average data from December 21 of the previous year to January 20 of the following year, the number of storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea is 0.5 and landfall inland Vietnam is 0.1.
Currently, the ENSO phenomenon is in the La Nina state. It is forecast that in the first three months of 2026, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to gradually transition to a neutral state with a probability of 60 - 65%. Meanwhile, the probability in the La Nina state is lower than previous forecasts and is only at 35 - 40%.
From June to June 2026, ENSO is likely to maintain a neutral state with a probability of 65-75%, a probability of transitioning to El Nino state of about 10 - 25% and a probability of transitioning to La Nina state of about less than 15%.
The meteorological agency forecasts that it is unlikely to appear in the East Sea area from January to March 2026. From April to June 2026, storms or tropical depressions in the East Sea area are equivalent to the multi-year average, but the possibility of landfall in our country is not high.
According to multi-year average data in the period from April to June, there were about 1.8 storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea, making landfall of 0.3 storms.
Regarding cold air activity in the next 3 months, it is forecast that it will tend to be weaker than the average of many years. However, cold air in the main winter period still causes severe cold spells. It is necessary to be wary of the possibility of severe cold spells causing the lowest temperature to drop sharply, especially in the northern mountainous areas and possibly accompanied by frost and ice.
Provinces and cities from Quang Tri to Da Nang, the east of Quang Ngai province to Gia Lai are likely to experience widespread rains in the next 1 month.
Along with the activity of the northeast monsoon, from about the second half of February and March 2026, the phenomenon of light rain and drizzle is likely to appear more in provinces/cities in the North (equivalent to the multi-year average).
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