The 2025 rainy season is assessed to have many complicated developments, in the context of increasing extreme weather. Reporters of Lao Dong Newspaper had an interview with Associate Professor, Dr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting to clarify the peak rainy season, timely warning and response solutions.
Can you tell us about the forecast of the peak of this year's rainy season in regions across the country?
- Currently, it is still the peak month of rainfall in the Northern region, the time of heavy rains is around mid-June to September.
For the Central region, the peak rainfall will start from September to November; in particular, in the South Central Coast region, the heavy rain will last in October, November and December.
In the Central and Southern highlands, the rainy season is taking place and will remain peak until around early August.
Given the complicated developments of heavy rains in recent times, how is the forecasting and early warning work being implemented, sir?
- Currently, the work of forecasting and warning of hydrometeorological diseases is being implemented continuously and increasingly soon.
For the phenomenon of heavy rain, thanks to forecast models - reasons and monitoring systems such as satellites and radar, we can early identify the possibility of widespread or local heavy rains in the next few days. This is very important information to help the government and people prepare for appropriate response.
However, determining exactly how much rain in which area, at which time of the day, or even every hour can now only be predicted with high confidence about 24 hours in advance.
Therefore, we regularly update short-term information and have begun to make detailed rainfall forecasts by area, from 6 to 12 hours in advance.
Based on this information, the meteorological industry has been implementing a zoning system to warn of the risk of flash floods and landslides in real time. The system uses hourly rainfall data from more than 3,500 automatic measurement stations, along with data from satellites, radar and digital models.
Thanks to that, we can issue warnings of the risk of flash floods and landslides in the next 6 hours, continuously update every hour, zoning to the commune level and dividing them into risk levels from average to very high. Based on that, local authorities and people in areas that may be affected will have information to proactively respond.
What recommendations do you have for people in areas that often experience flooding, flash floods, and landslides, especially in the context of the peak rainy season?
- Flash floods and landslides are unusual and complex phenomena. Although rain is a trigger factor, the occurrence of landslides depends on geological and terrain characteristics. Some places have the same rainfall conditions but landslides occur, other places do not.
Therefore, the role of on-site natural disaster prevention, especially the monitoring and supervision of people in the living area, is extremely important.
First of all, people need to grasp the warning of heavy rain a few days in advance to proactively prepare. Next, it is necessary to monitor short-term warnings - currently updated every hour, zoning the risk of flash floods to the commune level - to know what phenomena are at risk of happening in the next few hours in the area. This helps people proactively monitor areas that may be at risk, such as the hillsides behind their homes, roads or activities near rivers and streams.
With flash floods, flash floods - phenomena often associated with flow congestion. Therefore, regular review and supervision in the locality, especially in areas with steep terrain and small streams, where there are signs of water retention, is extremely necessary. This is the most proactive and effective preventive solution.
Sincerely thank you!
