The latest storm and low pressure information from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on April 28 said that the low pressure that appeared off the east coast of Mindanao entered the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) on the same morning.
At 3:00 a.m. on April 28, the low pressure was 695 km from South Cotabato.
PAGASA weather forecaster Daniel James Villamil said the new low pressure is unlikely to strengthen into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.
Due to the combined impact of the depression and the intertropical convergence zone, scattered showers are forecast in Mindanao and the Palawan region, Villamil said.
The Philippine weather forecaster noted that more thunderstorms have appeared in some areas of Palawan and southern Mindanao. We expect many areas in Mindanao to have scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, he said.
In the storm and low pressure forecast bulletin at 4:00 a.m. on April 28, PAGASA noted that Davao and Soccsksargen will be directly affected by the low pressure near the East Sea, with expected cloudy skies with scattered rain and thunderstorms. Other areas in Luzon and the Visayas will continue to experience hot weather, cloudy skies or scattered showers or thunderstorms.
Previously, on April 27, PAGASA confirmed that it was monitoring a new low pressure area outside the PAR forecast area. At 3:00 p.m. on April 27, the low pressure was 635 km southeast of Davao City and developed in the intertropical convergence zone affecting Mindanao.
PAGASA weather expert Veronica Torres said at that time that the newly appeared low pressure near the East Sea is likely to become the first storm of the 2025 typhoon season in the Pacific.
In February, a tropical depression formed in the East Sea but quickly dissipated. According to PAGASA's list of typhoon names for 2025, the first typhoon of the 2025 typhoon season in the Philippines will be called "Auring".
According to Ariel Rojas - weather forecaster of ABS-CBN, the low pressure near the East Sea may strengthen into a tropical storm on April 30 or May 1. The storm could pass through the central Philippines towards the South China Sea or around the eastern part of Luzon, he said.
However, he noted that the forecast track and intensity of Auring remains uncertain. ABS-CBN's typhoon bulletin said that thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon in many places on Luzon and Visayas from April 28 to 30 and more severe thunderstorms are expected in Mindanao due to the influence of the new low pressure.
If Auring forms and makes landfall in the Philippines, Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao are expected to see very heavy rain from May 1 to May 4, while much of the Philippines will see rain lasting until May 4.
If the storm moves back towards the Pacific Ocean before making landfall in the Philippines, rain due to the storm's circulation may be recorded in Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon from 2.5 to 4.5.
