The European Union (EU) is moving closer to the goal of completely ending Russian gas imports by the end of 2027. This plan, if fully implemented, will lock down Moscow's energy future in the European market and turn a series of infrastructure worth tens of billions of USD into stuck assets.
Among them, Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 are the earliest victims. Two gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea were destroyed at the end of 2022, while Nord Stream 2 - a project worth about 11 billion USD to double the cheap Russian gas flow to Germany - has never been licensed to operate.
Over the past time, there have been speculations that Nord Stream could "revive" if the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends and a peace agreement is signed. But the political reality is making this scenario distant.
Contacts to seek a ceasefire are slow, as both Russia and Ukraine are unwilling to cross the "red lines" related to territory.
Before the 2022 conflict, Russian gas accounted for about 45% of Europe's consumption demand. To date, this rate is estimated to be only about 13%. The reintegration of supply from Russia is not only an economic story, but also a political and ethical issue, with a risk of deep internal division within the EU.
Ukraine certainly opposes any moves that bring economic benefits to Russia. Poland even called for the complete dismantling of the Nord Stream pipelines.
Technically, Nord Stream is not necessarily a ruin. Earlier this year, the Danish Energy Authority allowed Nord Stream 2 to carry out conservation work to prevent gas leaks and pipeline corrosion in the country's exclusive economic zone.
The core issue is whether Europe is willing to return to Russian gas or not. Some countries, especially Germany - where the industry is under great pressure due to high energy costs - may find it difficult to resist the attraction of cheap gas.
Meanwhile, the EU has reached a preliminary agreement to completely ban Russian gas imports: Liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the end of 2026 and pipeline gas from the fall of 2027. This new legal framework makes "turning around" extremely difficult, at least in the short term.
Not to mention, the US - a major LNG supplier to Europe - finds it difficult to accept the return of Nord Stream, in the context that Washington wants to consolidate gas market share in the old continent.
From Moscow, gas for Europe is currently being pivoted to Asia, especially China, through new pipelines.
The possibility of Russia accepting selling gas at a lower price to return to Europe is possible. But right now, the security context and strategic confidence in Europe have changed deeply.
Therefore, even in the most optimistic scenario, Russian gas and Nord Stream are likely to be just a secondary option - rather than a pillar - in Europe's energy future.
