Warning of the risk of Ukraine lasting only 3 months

Song Minh |

Ukraine risks running out of budget in February 2026 if the EU fails to approve a 140 billion euros compensation loan based on frozen Russian assets.

Ukraine's budget could run out in just the next three months, as Europe has yet to agree on a plan to use frozen Russian assets to pump money into Kiev, according to Politico.

This is considered the most serious warning since the cash flow from the US - the largest source of support for Ukraine - officially stopped.

Politico quoted sources as saying that Kiev could " run out of money" by February 2026 if the European Union (EU) does not approve a compensation loan worth 140 billion euros.

The plan is based on the use of assets of the Russian Central Bank that are being frozen at a securities depositories Euroclear located in Brussels.

However, the proposal is facing strong opposition from Belgium - the country that plays a key role in this decision.

According to the newly published article, the warning this time is more serious than Politico's previous forecast that Ukraine will face financial difficulties in April 2026. The reason for the timeline change was not explained, but observers said that Kiev's cash flow situation had deteriorated faster than expected.

The biggest obstacle at the moment is Belgium's tough stance. In October, Belgium refused to back the plan to use Russian assets due to concerns that it would have to bear financial risks if the plan had problems.

Belgium requires a mechanism to ensure that it is not the only country to suffer the consequences, along with many other legal and political concerns.

In that context, EU leaders are expected to continue discussing this issue at the summit in December. However, Politico said that there is currently little sign that the deadlock between the EU and the Belgian government will be resolved soon, as time for Kiev is passing rapidly.

The US end of financial support has left Europe burdened with the entire burden of Ukraine's conflict budget. Politico warned that if the compensation loan is not approved, it is almost impossible to expect EU countries to borrow on the market to compensate for Kiev - an option that is considered risky and unpopular.

In the event of a prolonged deadlock, a ready alliance of several countries that strongly support Kiev could have to mobilize resources themselves. However, this comes as the political situation in Europe is turbulent, and Ukraine is being overshadowed by a new corruption scandal.

With only months left, Ukraine's financial future depends almost entirely on the EU's decision - especially Belgium's attitude - to mobilize frozen Russian assets. If this process continues to be congested, Kiev risks entering 2026 in a state of depleted funding.

Song Minh
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