On December 2, diplomatic sources from Brussels ( Belgian) said that regardless of where the latest diplomatic efforts of the Donald Trump administration will go, European countries are facing the obsession of a "bad deal" - sooner or later.
European officials are concerned that the outcome of the conflict will not sanction or weaken Russia as they expected. In contrast, a rushed deal at the moment could put Europe's security in a more dangerous position than ever. They fear they will have to witness and accept a reality: The rise of economic partnership between the US - the traditional sponsor of NATO - and Russia.
In fact, Europe's voice at the negotiating table is becoming caddy due to a lack of strong enough military capabilities to put pressure. The clearest proof is the absence of a European representative at an important meeting between US and Ukrainian officials in Florida last weekend.
Mr. Luuk van Middelaar, Director of the Brussels Geopolitical Institute, commented that Europe is gradually being pushed to the brink, as Mr. Trump seems to only want to solve the problem in the way of the big countries, where only the US and Russia are the ones deciding the game.
Although US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reassured that Europe would participate in the discussion, these promises were not enough to dispel the uncertainty. Mr. Rubio's expected absence from the NATO foreign ministers' meeting this week has further raised allies' concerns about the US's true commitment.
The biggest concern now is that any peace deal that would allow Russia to keep controlled territories in Ukraine would set a dangerous precedent. In addition, the Trump administration's failure to rule out the possibility of resuming economic ties with Russia after the conflict has made Europe afraid that the opponent will have huge financial resources to rearme.
Ms. Kaja Kallas, EU senior representative, warned that if Russia's defense budget is restored, the risk of a conflict flare up again is completely present.
Experts say Europe is paying a heavy price for relying too much on the US for security. Despite providing Ukraine with about 180 billion euros (about 209.23 billion USD) in aid since 2022, Europe's voice is still not strong enough to influence the peace process.
Claudon Major, an expert at the German Marshall Fund, concluded that Europeans are not allowed to sit at the table simply because they have "nothing to wear" due to neglect in investing in defense over the years.
