Alan Riley, a senior research fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center and co-author of the report on the Nord Stream sabotage, told TVP World in an exclusive interview that the conclusion of German prosecutors said that the Ukrainians behind the explosions that paralyzed Russia's main gas route to Europe was unconvincing and there were many factors showing Russia's involvement.
Alan Riley's "Underwater Mayhem" report points to a series of clues showing that Russia is involved in the sabotage.
The blast occurred at the intersection between the Western-built section and the Russian-taken-over section, he said. The site is on the Nord Stream 2B branch - the section taken over by Russia after Western contractors stopped construction due to sanctions in 2019.
During the pipeline construction, Russian soldiers were spotted around the area, including members of the 313th combat unit of the Russian Baltic fleet, which specializes in responding to sabotage activities underwater.
In addition to the special forces, there are many other Russian military assets around the scene. Mr. Riley cited satellite evidence that the appearance of the Russian research vessel was capable of reconnacting and deploying remote control devices underwater. Notably, all ships turned off the automatic identification system (AIS) but were still detected by satellites.
He said that a few days before the Nord Stream explosion, many similar AIS-shutdown ships also appeared near the location. After the explosion, three Russian ships tried to approach the area blocked by a NATO ship and were escorted out.
Each individual detail is not enough to be direct evidence, but when combined, this picture is extremely convincing, he said.
However, German authorities still believe that the sabotage group was Ukrainian, operating on a yacht. Mr. Riley believes that this hypothesis is unreasonable.
People want us to believe that a yacht can carry heavy divers and explosives and then hit four different points on a giant international pipeline in a very short period of time. The weather at that time (September 2022) only allowed action within 24 hours" - he pointed out.
Mr. Riley is also skeptical about the identities of the suspects. One was listed as sabotage in Ukraine, while the other lived in Krasnodar, Russia. If he had been the culprit behind the Russian pipeline breach, his chances of living in a Russian city would have been almost zero, he noted.
He also found it confusing when the secret sabotage group hung the Ukrainian flag on the yacht. This detail is like a disguise, he commented.
When asked about the motives for Russia to sabotage its own pipeline, Mr. Riley replied directly: "The reason is money." He pointed out that by September 2022, Russia had implemented a policy of cutting gas to Western European customers to put pressure in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. The pipeline breach will push up gas prices but also risk facing Russia a series of civil lawsuits for stopping gas supplies.
"Therefore, they use the excuse of force majeure to limit the compensation level. This is the key," Mr. Riley emphasized.
