The storm/low pressure forecast bulletin on November 18 of the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said that there are currently two weather disturbances active in the West Pacific and the sea area near Vietnam, along with warnings of strong winds in many sea areas.
A large-scale disturbance is covering the Gulf of Thailand and the southern coast of Vietnam. The system is formed from a low pressure trough that causes thunderstorms to thrive but dispers.
Although the upper winds are quite favorable, the chance of tropical depression formation is only about 10% in the next 7 days, as the system will move rapidly across the Malay Peninsula and leave the West Pacific on November 20.
Although not significantly strengthened, this disturbance will cause local heavy rain in South Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand in the next 2-3 days.
Meanwhile, a new low pressure area is likely to form over the weekend in the eastern Philippine Sea, west of Guam.
The system is expected to move westward, gradually entering the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) over the weekend. The possibility of development is low (10%) because the high-level winds do not support strongly. If a low pressure forms, the strengthening process is expected to be very slow.
In addition to the two disturbances above, a series of sea areas have been warned of strong gusts of wind due to strong cold air masses of up to 1054 hPa covering China and Mongolia.
The Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that on the day and night of November 18, the North East Sea (including Hoang Sa special zone) will have strong northeast winds of level 7-8, gusting to level 9-10; rough seas, waves 4.0-6.0m high.
The Gulf of Tonkin will gradually increase to level 7, sometimes level 8, gusting to level 9-10; rough seas, waves 3.0-5.0m high.
The sea area from southern Quang Tri to Quang Ngai and the northern part of the central East Sea will gradually increase to level 6, sometimes level 7, gusting to level 8-9; rough seas, waves 4.0-6.0m high.
On the night of November 18, the sea area from Gia Lai to Khanh Hoa will gradually increase to level 6, gusting to level 7-8; rough seas, waves 3.0-5.0m high.
Regarding rain forecast, from early morning of November 18 to the end of the night of November 18:
Hue City to Da Nang City, east of Quang Ngai to Dak Lak: Heavy to very heavy rain 150-300mm, locally over 500mm.
South of Quang Tri and Khanh Hoa: Heavy to very heavy rain 100-200mm, locally over 350mm.
Ha Tinh and northern Quang Tri: moderate rain, heavy rain 50-100mm, locally over 200mm.
Day and night of November 19:
Da Nang City, east of Quang Ngai to Dak Lak, Khanh Hoa: moderate rain, heavy rain 100-200mm, locally over 350mm.
Hue City: moderate rain, heavy rain 40-80mm, locally over 150mm.
The Central and Southern highlands will have rain, moderate rain and thunderstorms; locally heavy rain to very heavy rain 20-40mm, some places over 80mm.
During thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes, lightning, hail, and strong gusts of wind.
Warning of heavy rainfall over 200 mm/3h.
