Forecast of early season storms appearing before the official start of the season

Thanh Hà |

USA Today's latest hurricane report says the first storm of the season is likely to appear in May, before the start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1, but tropical storms and hurricanes will occasionally form in May.

In fact, since records began in 1851, 32 named storms have formed in May, said hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University.

And many May storms have been recorded in recent typhoon seasons. "We have seen a series of May storms forming between 2007 and 2021, with 11 named storms forming within the past 15 years," Phil Klotzbach told USA Today.

However, for the past three years, we have not recorded any May storms, he said.

According to a 2022 hurricane study co-led by Phil Klotzbach, the Atlantic hurricane season is actually moving earlier. This could be due to significant warming ocean temperatures, especially in the western Atlantic in April and May in recent years, he said.

Bao dau mua, du hiem khi xay ra trong lich su, nhung co xu huong tap trung vao bo bien phia dong Vinh Mexico hoac dong nam My. Anh: Xinhua
Early season storms, although rare historically, tend to center on the east coast of the Gulf of Mexico or southeast of the United States. Photo: Xinhua

Although no storms have formed in May since 2021, the storm has occurred in the first week of June of 2022 and 2023.

Record temperatures were recorded in the Atlantic Ocean in May and June last year, but the first storm -formerly Alberto - appeared on June 19.

"It is important to note that although there is a trend of more early-season storms, these storms are generally weak. We haven't had a hurricane in May since Alma in 1970," said Klotzbach.

Regarding where typhoons typically form in May, WeatherTiger weather expert Ryan Truchelut pointed out that early season typhoons, although rare historically, tend to center on the east coast of the Gulf of Mexico or southeast of the United States. "All of these storms occurred on or after May 10, including four in 2012-2020," he said.

In 2021, the National Weather Service established a team to study the Atlantic hurricane season's date, including considering moving the start date of the season to May 15, revealed Maria Torres, a senior fellow at the US National Hurricane Center.

"The team determined that the current range of the hurricane season (from June 1 to November 30) has covered 96% of the storm's activity and moving the start date 2 weeks earlier would increase activity by just 1%," she said.

Based on those statistics, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) does not actively support amending the start date for the Atlantic hurricane season.

At present, there is no forecast sign of storms and tropical depressions forming in the Atlantic for the two weeks from April 22. "After that time, we did not have a model to predict the development in May," Klotzbach noted.

Thanh Hà
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