The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that in February, only one tropical cyclone is forecast to be likely to affect the Philippines, before typhoon activity, the low pressure is expected to gradually increase from February to July 2026.
According to PAGASA, the only tropical cyclone near the East Sea in the month may enter the eastern Visayas or Mindanao area, or change direction to a U-shaped shape and leave the Philippine forecast area. Specific scenarios still depend on atmospheric developments in the coming days.
In further forecasts, PAGASA estimates that from February to July 2026, the Philippines may suffer from 4 to 11 tropical cyclones. This information was announced at PAGASA's 192nd Climate Forum.
Speaking at the forum, senior meteorologist, Dr. Joseph Basconcillo said that the number of storms and tropical depressions is expected to gradually increase in stages.
In the period from February to April 2026, only 0-1 tropical cyclone may appear each month. In May and June, this number increases to 1-2 storms per month. By July, storm activity is forecast to be more active, with 2-4 tropical cyclones likely to affect the Philippines.
In parallel with the storm forecast, PAGASA also gave an assessment of the rainfall trend in the first half of 2026. From February to April, many areas across the country will record a higher number of dry days.
According to PAGASA's definition, "dry day" is a day with rainfall observed below 1 mm. Meanwhile, the period of July-July is forecast to have more rainy days, reflecting the gradual shift to the rainy season.
By region, from February to May, the western regions of Northern and Central Luzon are likely to experience rainfall below normal to much lower than average.
Some areas of Mimaropa, Bicol and Western Visayas are also forecast to have below-average rainfall in some months.
Conversely, most of the Visayas and Mindanao may maintain rainfall near the average level, interspersed with areas with lower or higher than normal rainfall.
From June to July, PAGASA forecasts that near-normal rainfall conditions will be common nationwide, showing more stable weather in the middle of the year.
Meanwhile, the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has issued a noteworthy weather trend forecast for February. This is still the main winter month, so cold air continues to operate, affecting both the weather pattern at sea and on land.
Across the country, the average temperature is generally approximately equal to the multi-year average of the same period, especially in the Northern region, it is 0.5 - 1 degree Celsius higher than the multi-year average, in some places it is 1.5 degrees Celsius higher.
In February 2026, it is forecast that storms/tropical depressions are unlikely to appear in the East Sea area. According to multi-year averages, in February in the East Sea there are 0.1 storms/tropical depressions, not making landfall in Vietnam.
