After weeks of stagnation, the US Senate has passed a spending bill to reopen the US government, helping to end the persistent paralysis in the federal administration. The bill has now been moved to the House of Representatives and is expected to be passed in the next few days.
However, the financial market did not seem very optimistic about the US economic outlook, as the world gold price remained anchored at a high level on the afternoon of November 12, Vietnam time, reaching over 4,126 USD/ounce, up nearly 16 USD, equivalent to 0.46%.
Analysts say that the US government's resumption will only solve a very small part of the bigger picture - that is, the US economy is facing clear signs of weakness and inflation is still persistent at high levels.
Carsten Fritsch, commodities expert at Commerzbank (Germany), commented: The US government's reopening may not happen at a time favorable for the economy. In the past two months, there has been almost no official economic data released, while data from the private sector shows an alarming decline in the labor market and consumer confidence.
According to Fritsch, the US consumer confidence index has fallen to a 3.5-year low, reflecting a cautious sentiment at risk of recession.
Once official economic data is released again, we will see more clearly the slowdown of the US economy, he predicted. At that time, the Federal Reserve (Fed) could be forced to cut interest rates more strongly than expected - and that will be a new driver for gold prices.
In that context, Commerzbank predicts gold could reach $4,200 an ounce by 2026, while silver prices will surpass $50 an ounce.
Not only Commerzbank, UBS experts also maintain a similar optimistic view. In a report by the UBS Chief Investment Office, the bank said that even though the US government reopens, financial and political risks are still a strong support for gold.
"The National Assembly only approves the temporary budget until the end of January. If a long-term budget deal is not reached, the US could completely fall into a partial closure again, UBS said.
In addition, investors are still closely watching the upcoming ruling of the US Supreme Court on the legality of taxes based on the International Emergency Economic Power Act (IEEPA). If the government is unfavorable, import tax packages can be reversed, strongly affecting trade balance and market confidence.
UBS also highlighted the record-breaking global public debt factor. In that context, gold continues to be seen as a safe haven to preserve value.
Many individual investors and large hedge funds in Asia and Europe are also increasing their holdings of physical gold, considering it a portfolio protection against political instability and the risk of too much interest rate cuts.
Some brokers believe that if the USD continues to weaken and the Fed begins a new easing cycle in the first quarter of 2026, gold could completely break out to the 4,300 USD/ounce zone.
With domestic gold prices, as of 11:45 a.m. on November 12, SJC gold bar prices were trading around 150 - 151.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
The price of 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold rings is trading at 148.8 - 151.8 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
The Fed may have to cut interest rates more strongly
Many experts predict that when economic data is released again, signs of a clear decline in the US economy will emerge. This could force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more aggressively.
Traders believe that upcoming economic data will show signs of weakening the US economy, which could lead to the Fed cutting interest rates in December. That is probably a factor that encourages gold buyers, said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.
