According to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), a low pressure area is likely to form early next week, a few hundred kilometers off the southern coast of Mexico.
"At atmospheric conditions are increasingly favorable for the development of this system. A tropical depression is likely to form by mid-next week, the latest NHC hurricane report said, assessing the possibility of the depression developing up to 70%.
The low pressure area is expected to move west or west-northwest at a speed of 16-24 km/h. If it maintains its trajectory and is assisted by warm ocean waters and high atmospheric moisture, the system could quickly strengthen into a tropical storm, and then a major hurricane.
If it reaches tropical storm level, the number 1 storm of the 2025 storm season will be named Alvin, according to the official list of storm names for the Pacific region. This will be the first named storm in the Northern Hemisphere this year.
According to AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva, the storm is likely to form between May 26 and 30, significantly earlier than the average in the Pacific region (usually on June 10).
Last year, the first Aletta storm appeared on July 4, marking the latest start to the satellite era in the Pacific Ocean.
Although most Pacific typhoons do not make landfall directly, they can still bring large amounts of moisture, causing heavy rain in many areas, especially the southwestern United States.
AccuWeather warned that this year, the North American monsoon season will be active, combined with tropical moisture that could bring heavy rains to New Mexico and Arizona - similar to the impact Hurricane Hilary had on California in August 2023.
Although the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently forecast that this year's storm season in the East Pacific will be below average (an average of 15 named storms), the early season developments show that unexpected scenarios are still completely possible.
Although Vietnam and Southeast Asia are outside the direct range of impacts of Pacific storms, they also need to closely monitor the situation, because global climate changes can create a chain effect, affecting storm developments in the East Sea in the coming months.
