The latest storm and low pressure information from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on April 23 said that a low pressure is forecast to be near the East Sea in the next few days.
The bulletin said that a new low pressure is expected to form near the Philippines during the week of April 23 to April 29. Forecast models predict that the new low pressure will appear in the southern area of PAGASA's PMD forecast area.
Experts say the low pressure is unlikely to intensify into a tropical storm during the forecast period.
It is forecasted that during the week from April 30 to May 6, the low pressure near the Philippines will continue to exist and gradually move north. The low pressure is unlikely to strengthen into a storm but will enter the PAGASA PAR forecast area this week.
Typically, storms forming near the Philippines in April are forecast to move in four directions.
First, the storm will form in the western Pacific Ocean, enter PAR but turn south of Japan.
Second, the storm formed in the western Pacific, entered PAR and then turned towards Japan.
Third, the storm formed in the western Pacific, entered PAR, swept across the Philippine mainland and then turned toward Japan.
Scenario 4, the storm will form in the western Pacific, enter PAR, make landfall in the central Philippines, then enter the East Sea, heading towards Vietnam.
Unlike storms that formed in April, storms that formed near the Philippines in May have two main movements: First, storms formed in the western Pacific, entered PAR but immediately circleed out to sea as they prepared to make landfall; Second, storms formed in the western Pacific, made landfall in the central Philippines, then circleed back and left the PAR forecast area.
According to PAGASA's typhoon forecast for the 2025 typhoon season released in early January, two to eight typhoons are expected to form within or enter the Philippine PAR forecast area from January to June 2025. The first, second, third and fourth months could see one storm, while May and June could see two each month.
January to May every year is often considered a quiet period for tropical depression and storm activity in the northwest Pacific basin, an area that includes the Philippines.
PAGASA's weather bulletin on April 22 said that the weather forecast in the Philippines will be even hotter, with the temperature index expected to peak in May. The warning came after temperatures soared to 47 degrees Celsius in San Ildefonso, Bulacan last weekend, the highest level since the start of the year.
Amid the heat, PAGASA weather expert Rhea Torres noted that Mindanao is expected to see rain in the coming days due to the tropical convergence zone, while other parts of the Philippines continue to see hot and humid weather brought by the winter wind from the Pacific Ocean.
