The latest hurricane forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that this year's Atlantic hurricane season is likely to exceed average, although not dominated by two major climate phenomena El Nino or La Nina.
According to NOAA, the 2025 typhoon season could see 13 to 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become strong typhoons, and 3 to 5 reaching major typhoon status with winds of 179 km/h or more.
NOAA forecasts a 60% chance of above-average activity in the 2025 hurricane season, and a 30% chance of near-average. On average, the Atlantic region records about 14 named storms each year, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
This forecast is a warning: Prepare. Taking action now is necessary to minimize damage, stressed Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service.
Meanwhile, a team of experts at Colorado State University (CSU) gave more specific figures: 17 named storms, 9 strong storms and 4 major storms, higher than the historical average, showing the potential for a "hot" hurricane season.
Normally, the presence of El Nino or La Nina - two important climate phenomena in the Pacific - will directly affect the number and intensity of storms in the Atlantic. But both phenomena are not active at the moment, leaving the ENSO (Southern - El Nino) state neutral.
ENSO neutrality is the most unpredictable scenario. We have seen every scenario from a quiet to super intense hurricane season in this condition, said a meteorologist in the US.
Although still warmer than the long-term average, the tropical Atlantic Ocean - especially the main development area between Africa and the Caribbean - is recording temperatures about 1 degree Celsius lower than the same period last year.
Experts say that just a slight trade wind could cause the area to warm up rapidly, but so far, the sea has not shown a clear "hot" signal despite the approach of summer.
In addition, many other global climate factors are not well understood, making the forecast for this year's storm season more complicated.
As of the end of May, the Northern Hemisphere has not yet recorded any tropical storms reaching strong cyclone status, 1 month later than the average of many years.
Last year, the storm season also began unusually late due to a prolonged global soon period, causing many pre-season forecasts to deviate.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will last for 183 days, ending on November 30.
