European and US weather forecast models are giving mixed signals, but there is a warning that this winter could be unusually cold after Christmas.
Is the winter of the century approaching? This is a question raised as many German meteorologists warn of the possibility of severe cold air waves such as the Arctic in the coming weeks.
The main cause lies in the weakening of the poles - the cover that holds cold air in the circulation around the Arctic. When the cyclone is extremely weak, cold air flows can sweep across Europe, causing unusual cold spells.
The last time this classical weather pattern created a historic winter in Germany was in 1978-79, when snowstorms, strong winds and record-breaking low temperatures paralyzed the entire transportation system. Those memories are being recalled as experts analyze the weather trend for the 2025-2026 winter.
Current forecast models show a gentle Christmas period, although there are still some local cold signals. wetter.de's 42-day long-term data also shows a similar picture: The weather in general is not too harsh before the holidays.
The European Meteorological Forecasting Center (ECMWF) is leaning towards a colder scenario, but only after Christmas. In contrast, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) model predicts a significantly higher average December temperature. However, this forecast is strongly influenced by the weather developments in the first 2 weeks of the month, so the possibility of a deep cold spell coming right after the holiday cannot be ruled out.
models from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) predict that January could be colder and drier than the average for many years. This suggests the possibility of a stable high pressure forming over Central Europe - a weather state that often deceives many people. The weather is clear and dry during the day, but the night is covered in thick fog, the surface cools quickly, and there is easily frost and a state of "long-term freezing".
In that context, an extremely weak tornado could become a decisive factor. Although there is no model showing the risk of a complete collapse of the exactly 80 degrees Celsius, the current high pressure formation is suitable for deep cold periods due to the recent influx of Arctic air.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center confirmed that La Nina has formed, lasting until at least February 2026. La Nina typically brings colder than usual weather to Western Europe. Although the impact of this phenomenon is gradually decreasing as the location is further from the Pacific Ocean, Europe is still likely to be affected.
The combination of extremely weak cyclones and cold trends after Christmas and La Nina shows that this winter will be more unpredictable than usual - and the possibility of deep cold spells in the "winter of the century" is real.
