The latest weather bulletin from the US Climate Prediction Center said that the neutral ENSO phenomenon (a neutral state between El Nino and La Nina) is likely to remain true throughout the summer of 2025 in the Northern Hemisphere, with a probability of up to 74% in June to August and over 50% in the August to October period.
Sub surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are also average, while the western Pacific remains deep.
Low-level and high-level winds in the equatorial Pacific are near average, convective activity is decreasing sharply in the area near and west of the International Daylight, but increasing around Indonesia.
Overall, the ocean- atmospheric system is maintaining a neutral state of ENSO.
According to the forecast from the International Climate Research Institute (IRI) and the North American Multi-Model Group (NMME), the neutral ENSO is likely to last until the end of summer and early fall 2025.
The US government's forecast team also agreed with this scenario, with a 50% confirmation of a neutral state lasting until the fall. However, uncertainty will increase gradually by the end of the year, with the possibility of ENSO forming at 46%, La Nina at 41%, and El Nino below 15% in the period from November 2025 to January 2026.
La Nina and El Nino often affect the hurricane season, but it is forecast that these two phenomena will not have a significant impact on the hurricane season until the end of the year. If La Nina appears, the hurricane season could extend, while El Nio could end the season early.
However, hurricane experts warn that this year's Atlantic hurricane season will be very intense.
According to AccuWeather.com's hurricane forecast, the 2025 hurricane season is intense, with many similarities to the 2024 hurricane season - a season that saw Hurricane Beryl, severe flooding from Hurricane Helene and tornadoes from Hurricane Milton.
AccuWeather expert Alex DaSilva emphasized that the biggest concern is still the phenomenon of rapidly intensifying storms, which has caused a lot of damage in recent years.
An important factor leading to the strong forecast for the 2025 hurricane season is unusually high ocean temperatures, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, which provide energy for storm formation.
AccuWeather forecasts that there will be about 13 to 18 named storms in the 2025 season. The 2025 hurricane season is also expected to start early, possibly before June 1, then it could temporarily calm down and continue to reach a severe peak in the September-November period, as in last year's model.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
