World gold prices have increased by more than 60% in 2025, surpassing all previously predicted scenarios. Entering 2026, a series of global risks - from trade tensions, US public debt to the risk of AI bubbles - are causing financial institutions to simultaneously raise their gold price forecast to a record high of 4,500 - 5,000 USD/ounce.
Capital flows from gold ETFs and net buying activities of central banks are forecast to remain high. Morgan Stanley believes that this double demand could push gold prices above $4,500/ounce by mid-2026.
The World Gold Council (WGC) believes that risks and uncertainties will continue to dominate the market. Expert Joe Cavatoni believes that the difficulties in 2025 are only the "opening" and defensive trends will continue into the next year.
Worry about AI bubbles: Investors turn to gold to protect
Another notable bien in 2026 is the risk of strong correction in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Bank of America warns that if the AI bubble breaks, gold will become the strongest protective barrier.
Many experts believe that investing heavily in AI may not generate the expected short-term profits. Analysts at Macquarie even used the image: "For the most part, buy technology, for the most part, buy gold, and for the most part, buy both".
From a market perspective, the global trade slowdown caused by new US tax packages could accelerate the weakening of the AI fever, thereby stimulating investors to switch to safe-haven assets.
Weak USD, low interest rates: solid foundation for gold price increase
Gold prices often move in the opposite direction of the USD and real interest rates. Morgan Stanley's forecast is based on the assumption that the USD will weaken as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is forced to cut interest rates sharply next year.
The US fiscal pressure is huge. The cost of paying public interest has reached about 1,200 billion USD per year, contributing to raising the budget deficit to 1,800 billion USD. According to analysts, the US government needs a lower interest rate level to avoid borrowing costs that "eat" out budget revenue.
When the Fed softens policy, even returning to qualitative easing (QE), gold is expected to benefit strongly.
Gold price forecast for 2026: Street-based threshold of 4,500 - 5,000 USD/ounce
Most major financial institutions are bullish on gold prices.
Metals Focus: Gold price is an average of 4,560 USD/ounce; In the fourth quarter of 2026, it could reach 4,850 USD.
Goldman Sachs: Gold price scenario increases to 4,900 USD thanks to central banks increasing purchases and the Fed cutting interest rates.
Bank of America: Gold forecast to surpass $5,000/ounce as US budget deficit increases and Trump's economic policies cause further fluctuations.
B2PRIME Group: Gold prices remain around $4,500 due to record-breaking US public debt and weakening in the long-term bond market.
Experts say existing risks - trade tensions, public debt pressure, geopolitical instability and AI bubbles - will continue to push investors into gold in 2026.
The world gold price at 7:00 p.m. on December 8, Vietnam time, was trading at 4,212.3 USD/ounce, up 14.49 USD, equivalent to 0.35%.
Regarding domestic gold prices, SJC gold bar prices are trading around 153 - 154.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
The price of 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold rings is trading around 150.8 - 153.8 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
