In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has lasted for more than 3 and a half years, a worrying reality is present for Ukraine: The lack of steam from European allies. The strong commitments now face many challenges, forcing Ukraine to seek new paths to ensure long-term defense capabilities.
Europe's support is no longer as solid as it was initially. Europe's aid commitments have now fallen more than half compared to the first half of 2025, to less than $2 billion a month from the previous four billion, or a decrease of over 50%.
The decline has caused a serious shortage of ammunition on the battlefield, putting Ukraine in a difficult position and urging them to seek alternative sources of supply.
In an effort to diversify supply, one of the biggest hopes comes from Asia. In 2023, there were signs that South Korea, one of the world's leading arms producers, could change its policy.
Historically, South Korea has maintained a stance of providing only non-lethal aid to conflict areas. However, former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has previously left open the possibility of providing military aid to Ukraine under special conditions: A large-scale attack on civilians is considered a "red line" that could trigger this policy change.
Although this is not a firm commitment, the change in this stance is considered an important step forward. If it becomes a reality, the participation of a defense industry power like South Korea in support will be an extremely valuable boost to Ukraine's defense capabilities.
Another important ally of Ukraine outside the EU is Turkey. This relationship is complex but practical. As a NATO member, Turkey has provided Ukraine with weapons to change the battlefield situation, most notably the Bayraktar TB2 drone, which played a key role in the early stages of the war.
At the same time, Turkey is still maintaining its role as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. This unique situation allows Turkey to both provide military support to Ukraine and maintain a dialogue channel with Russia.
For Ukraine, Turkey is not only a supplier of high-tech weapons but also an important geopolitical partner in the Black Sea region. Turkey co-sponsored the Black Sea Cereal Initiative in July 2022, helping Ukraine export nearly 33 million tons of grains and other food products to 45 countries and territories as of July 2023.
In general, when faced with a challenging new reality, Ukraine's possible direction is not to abandon its old allies, but to seek to build a more layered, flexible and sustainable support network, reaching beyond traditional geographical limits.
