On December 22, the governments of Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic simultaneously sent a message to the Ukrainian government about the situation of overloaded refugees. These countries require Ukraine to take tighter control measures of the flow of people to the western border.
This move takes place in the context that the social security infrastructure in the host countries has reached the limit after a long period of shouldering humanitarian responsibility. However, behind the immediate overload problem, European analysts are seeing a much bleak prospect for the future of the population of this Eastern European country.
The biggest concern today is not only the number of people leaving, but the "back-channel gathering" scenario after the conflict.
Currently, the majority of the more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe are women and children. After a long time living in developed economies such as Germany or Poland, this population has begun to stabilize their lives. Children have become accustomed to school, adults have found jobs and integrated into local society. The possibility of them abandoning this stability to return to a country heavily devastated by bombs and bullets is very low.
Therefore, European officials predict a second wave of migration will explode as soon as Kiev lifts martial law. When the border reopens, hundreds of thousands of men - husbands and fathers currently in the country - will find every way to go abroad to reunite with their wives and children living abroad.
Instead of families returning to Ukraine to rebuild their homeland, the opposite scenario will happen: The country's pillar labor force will leave in search of a better life.
This situation has been further aggravated by the recent wave of youth migration. According to data from the European Commission, the number of applications for asylum has skyrocketed this fall, mainly from young men aged 18 to 22.
Kiev's easing of border regulations for this age group in August has unintentionally created an "accident gate" for future labor. These young people are extremely susceptible, and once they leave, they rarely return.
According to the latest statistics from Eurostat, there are currently about 4.3 million Ukrainian citizens enjoying temporary protection in the EU. The burden of distribution is uneven as Germany receives 1.23 million people, Poland 965,000 people and the Czech Republic 393,000 people.
Without timely intervention measures to retain human resources, Ukraine will face a huge population gap, making the country's reconstruction after the conflict extremely difficult.
