An accurate assessment of El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for governments, energy markets and farmers in making agricultural plans, especially as global warming makes weather phenomena more severe.
However, Jon Gottschalck - Director of the Activities Forecast Branch of the US Climate Prediction Center - pointed out that people who want solidity from an industry cannot bring that. Weather forecasts are predictable and sometimes there are unexpected results, with results that are unlikely to happen still leading to a reaction.
The nuances in our forecast are meaningful even if stakeholders dont like to see them, Gottschalck said, stressing ENSO is still the most predictable seasonal and annual forecast we have.
ENSO is monitored by temperature imbalance metrics in the Pacific Ocean compared to the average temperature in previous decades. As the world heats up, there are concerns about over-evaluating the El Nino phenomenon and underestimating the La Nina phenomenon.
Even without challenges from global warming, global ENSO forecasts can still create uncertainty, with a clear example being forecasts for La Nina phenomena this year.
In early 2025, the Philippines and the US said La Nina had formed. Meanwhile, Japan and Australia still consider the weather conditions to be ENSO neutral.
Bloomberg pointed out that the difference in statements about the occurrence of La Nina stems from the fact that each country uses different standards to measure ENSO thresholds.
Its like a symphony orchestra playing without a conductor. Every instrument, whether Australian, American or French, plays its best piece of music perfectly, but that can't stop chaos," said climatologist Alexandre Peltier, head of climate medicine at Meteo-France in New Caledonia.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) - the United Nations climate agency - has released an ENSO forecast based on forecasts from dozens of meteorological centers around the world, creating a new "one-stop warehouse" to provide more detailed and regular information.
In the Philippines, the country's weather agency is looking to provide more detailed information suitable for each specific region and industry, including recommendations on what to do before, during and after El Nino or La Nina. The Philippines is a frontline country in the fight against typhoons originating from the western Pacific.
The El Nino phenomenon was noticed by South American fishermen centuries ago. Modern researchers recognize the importance of El Nino to global weather in the 1960s. About two decades later, La Nina was named.
