As gas output from the South Pars gas super mine - accounting for 80% of national gas output - is facing a serious risk of decline, Iran has announced a huge investment package worth $17 billion to save the exhausted energy economy.
However, according to close sources from Iran's Oil and Petroleum Ministry, not Tehran, but Moscow alone, could gain "sweet fruit" from these contracts - partly through lenient transfer channels and intermediaries in Asia.
The South Pars gas field is the world's largest natural gas field, located off the Persian Gulf, shared between Iran and Qatar. South Pars covers an area of 3,700 km2 and is located in Iran's exclusive economic zone. The rest belongs to Qatar.
South Pars contains 14,200 billion cubic meters of gas and 18 billion barrels of condensate condensate - which is the "lieutenant" of the Iranian energy industry, accounting for nearly 80% of the country's gas production.
However, forecasts from Tehran alone show that output could fall by 30% in the next 10 years, with the worst case scenario being just 200 million m3/day by the end of 2026. This will be a big shock to domestic consumption demand, especially in winter.
After the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, corporations such as Totalenergies (France) were forced to leave Iran, leaving a huge gap in technology, equipment and human resources.
Tehran's localization efforts are not enough to help maintain production, while Qatari has increased exploitation using modern gas compression technology, putting Iran at a disadvantage when sharing the same mine.
Although the $17 billion contracts were awarded to four Iranian companies, including Khatam al-Anbiya (under the Revolutionary Guards), Petropars, MAPNA and OIEC, according to an exclusive source with OilPrice.com, this is effectively an underlying message to Moscow: Take action.
Russian companies, which have held many contracts through Khatam al-Anbiya from 2019 to 2024, can now "activate" to conduct exploitation.
Oilprice even revealed that Russia will enjoy a 35% increase in gas, with a discount of 30-35% based on a 6-month price average. In return, Moscow has control over both output and selling prices.
According to observers, in the new flag state, Russia not only makes profits but also has a strategic advantage: controlling Iran's gas infrastructure, increasing influence in the Middle East and consolidating its position as a gas intermediary.
