Over the past decade, the United States has always opposed Russia's export of gas. After the Russian -Ukrainian conflict broke out, the US banned Russia, then imposed sanctions to prevent the development of LNG projects in the Arctic.
However, the situation changes. Officials of both the United States and Russia are discussing the ability to cooperate in selling gas to Europe. The information that Nord Stream 2 may be revived, or US companies can participate in Russian LNG projects in the Arctic.
Although it was too early to guess the results of Ukrainian peace negotiations, the analysis of the geopolitical context of the gas was revealing a number of Russian gas export scripts to Europe, National Interest pointed out.
The situation with export gas through the gas pipeline is considered to be more complicated. Although there are many pipelines that can bring Russian gas to Europe, each route has its own limits: the pipeline to Finland will not work again because the country is about to completely prohibit Russian gas. The Yamal pipeline through Poland has also stopped operating due to political reasons.
Turkstream - The only gas pipeline also brought Russian gas to Europe - which is operating at the maximum capacity. This pipeline is currently facing security risks because Ukraine has used unmanned aircraft to attack Turkstream's support infrastructure in the Krasnodar region (Russia). Although the attacks have been blocked, they still show weaknesses and risks of being destroyed with Turkstream. TurkStream can become the target for new sanctions if negotiating does not achieve the desired results.
Both Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipes were damaged after the September 2002 explosion. Nord Stream needs to be licensed for repair, not to mention related legal troubles. Only one is not broken of Nord Stream 2 but this branch has not been granted operation certification.
The transit air pipeline to Ukraine has ended the transit from January 1, 2025. The gas measurement point of this pipe in Sudzha has just been bombed recently, even if it is repaired, it takes time to restore the supply.
The feasible options for Russian gas through the pipeline include:
Maintaining the current situation: Do not restore transit to Ukraine or Nord Stream, only Turkstream operates. The decreased Russian gas volume creates opportunities for American LNG.
Restore part of the transit to Ukraine: the gas flow back to about 10-15 billion m3 as in 2024. This may be a compromise that the two sides can accept: Russia retains a bit of revenue and influence, the US is still competitive, Ukraine has more revenue and gas to meet the needs, Chinese European countries such as Slovakia, Hungary have a source of low-cost gas supply.
Large transfer agreement or Nord Stream 2: It takes time to operate, but in the long run will help Russia bring more gas to Europe. This is what Russia wants, but it is a "political bomb" with the US, unless American companies benefit from transit fee or have shares in exploitation. However, this is not easy and has many legal problems.
