The efforts of the US President Donald Trump's administration to gain control of Greenland have led Russia to a carefully calculated response. According to analysts, Russia superficially maintains a restrained attitude, but is concerned about the risk to strategic submarine operations.
Mr. Andrey Kortunov - expert of the Valdai Discussion Club, former General Director of the Russian Council on International Affairs - said that the Greenland event represents "a completely different level of pragmatic politics, perhaps never seen since the Suez Canal crisis in 1956". He noted that this time Mr. Trump is targeting US allies instead of opponents.
In addition to its symbolic geopolitical significance, Russian military planners are also concerned about the obvious consequences if the US increases its presence in Greenland for naval operations in the Atlantic.
If the US is really serious about upgrading military infrastructure in Greenland, it could create certain problems for the Russian navy, especially when it comes to strategic submarines based in the Barents Sea. Their free access to the North Atlantic could be limited," Mr. Kortunov said.
Russia's Northern Fleet operates ballistic missile submarines from the Kola peninsula base. Access to the Atlantic Ocean through the Norwegian Sea is a key factor in Russia's nuclear deterrence system. If the US expands its surveillance and anti-submarine warfare capabilities from Greenland, these operations could become more complex.
In January 2026, Russian Ambassador to Denmark Vladimir Barbin warned that "US national security efforts by harming the interests of other countries could worsen the Arctic situation, which Russia will have to consider in its military plan".
Meanwhile, Alexander Vorotnikov - an Arctic researcher at the Russian Presidential Academy - believes that the US control of Greenland "may negatively affect" the development of Russia's Northern Sea Route.
Russia is seeking to assert its key role in Arctic commercial transport, a increasingly feasible and cost-saving shipping route in connecting Asia and Europe as ice melts due to climate change. The Northern sea route is considered a potential competitor to traditional routes such as the Suez Canal.
Although Russia's official response tends to downplay the importance of the Greenland issue, this event may prompt Russia to accelerate military investment in the Arctic.
I can imagine this crisis will become another driving force for Russia to invest more heavily in the Arctic region to protect itself from future instability and challenges. Some opinions suggest that in just a few years, the US Arctic strategy could become a formidable challenge for Russia," Mr. Kortunov said.
In the past decade, Russia has invested significantly in Arctic military infrastructure, reactivated Soviet-era bases and deployed new air defense and coastal defense systems along the northern coast.
Russia's Arctic coastline accounts for more than 40% of the total length of the global Arctic coastline. This region also has a population larger than the total population of other Arctic countries combined, with many major Russian cities located in the Arctic Circle.
