The world gold price surpassing the threshold of 4,250 USD/ounce marks an important change in the long-term trend of the precious metal.
Mr. Muhammad Umair - founder of the gold price forecasting website and precious metals market analysis Gold Predictors - commented on Fxempire that if macro factors continue to be favorable, gold can completely aim for the mark of 6,000 USD/ounce in 2026.
The biggest driver for gold's strong rally is the US economy issuing signs of slowing down. Consumption did not grow, retail sales actually decreased slightly and almost tripled in the past 3 years. Consumer confidence fell to 88.7 points - the lowest level since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic.
At the same time, the RealClear Markets/TIPP optimism index has continuously declined, showing that pessimism is spreading. The risk of recession is rising as a result, and the market is starting to believe that the Fed will have to ease policy faster than expected.
Many Fed officials are also moving to a soft stance. New York Fed President John Williams said that interest rates may decrease in the coming time.
Governor Christopher Waller believes the labor market is weak enough for the Fed to consider easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned that the workforce is fragile and could decline rapidly.
These signals have reduced the yield on 10-year US bonds to nearly 4%, creating a favorable environment for gold prices to break out.
Gold's price exceeding 4,250 USD/ounce is considered an important confirmation of the uptrend. For many months, gold has been moving steadily in the upward channel, continuously rebounding from the support zone of $4,000/ounce. In just the last week of November, gold increased by more than 3% thanks to the weakening of the USD and expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates in December.
According to technical analysis, if gold holds the $4,250/ounce zone and moves to $4,400/ounce in the coming time, the increase will be consolidated. This is the threshold that establishes a new acceleration, paving the way for the 5,000 USD target, before the market can aim for 6,000 USD/ounce in 2026.
In addition to economic and technical factors, physical demand for gold is also changing in a positive direction. In October, Tether - the world's largest stablecoin issuer - bought 26 tons of gold, exceeding the purchases of many central banks. This reflects the increasingly clear trend of gold embankment, helping gold attract new capital from digital asset investors.
Regarding domestic gold prices on December 1, SJC gold bar prices also increased sharply, to 153.7 - 155.7 million VND/tael (buy - sell), an increase of 800,000 VND compared to the previous session. This is also the highest mark of SJC gold bar price ever.
The price of 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold rings is trading around 152 - 155.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell), the difference between buying and selling is up to 3.5 million VND/tael.
Many factors create significant ease for gold prices
The almost certain expectation of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates is the main driver of the precious metal market in recent days, pushing prices above the 4,200 USD/ounce mark.
Experts and investors are now confident in gold's rally. Asset Strategies International President Rich Checkan believes that the precious metal still has room to increase, as the conflict in Ukraine has not cooled down and expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates for the third time this year are getting stronger, creating a significant support for gold.
