USA Today's latest hurricane report says a rising storm in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to bring heavy rain, potentially flooding to Florida, starting on October 6 and lasting through next week.
"While the exact track and intensity of the system in the Gulf of Mexico are yet to be determined, Florida will face the most serious consequences at this time," AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
According to USA Today, forecasters are largely concerned about heavy rain, with up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rainfall expected in some areas from Federal Highway 4 south to the Keys. Some isolated locations may see up to 760 mm of rain, AccuWeather forecasts. Many locations are forecast to see up to 250-380 mm of rain, the National Weather Service warned.
AccuWeather forecasts that the latest system is likely to strengthen into a typhoon. AccuWeather forecaster Alex DaSilva said that if the system strengthens in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, moving along a narrow path east-northeast toward the Florida peninsula, it will have enough time and potential to strengthen into a tropical storm, even a hurricane.
In the October 4 hurricane and tropical depression forecast, the US National Hurricane Center said that there is a possibility that "a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid-next week".
Some forecast models are seeing a weak center of pressure forming south or central Florida on October 8-9, possibly a low-level tropical storm, says Brian McNoldy, a weather expert at the University of Miami. If it becomes a named storm, the system would be called Hurricane Milton.
Mr. McNoldy noted that there is a general consensus that the system will begin drifting east toward the Florida peninsula, with rainfall starting on October 6 and lasting for several days. "The system could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression or typhoon at that time, but the winds won't be the main threat, it will be rain," he said.
Meteorologist Ryan Truchelut said heavy rain is expected in central and southern Florida from Oct. 6-8.
The newly formed hurricane forecast comes as Hurricane Kirk, a Category 4 storm, and Hurricane Leslie are gathering heavily in the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center said that large waves from Kirk could lead to life-threatening high waves and strong currents to the US east coast from October 6.
Kirk - the third strongest Category 4 storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season - is expected to weaken next week, but the remnants of the storm are likely to last long and affect much of Western Europe by mid-next week.
According to the latest hurricane report from the US National Hurricane Center on October 5, Hurricane Leslie has become a hurricane. However, the latest Atlantic hurricane is not expected to threaten any land areas.
