Provocation
Earlier this week, migrants have closed the Kuznitsa border and begun provoking Polish security forces. They threw rocks at Polish police. Polish police responded from behind the fence with smoke gomes. The Polish army also used two dragon hoses to spray on migrants in the border area with Belarus. In the air, the situation was monitored by helicopters.
Currently, the refugees are right on the border, some of whom are still in the control station. The estimated number is about 2,000-3,500 people. At the same time, no efforts to overcome any barriers were recorded. People are waiting for an opportunity to cross the border to Poland, but Warsaw has made it clear that they will not create such an opportunity for anyone. Polish public opinion has expressed its view of standing with their security staff.
Meanwhile, Belarus' weather forecasters warn of a cold spell at the border. At night, the temperature will drop to 0 degrees, the wind will strengthen. It is difficult to say what the discouraged refugees would do in such circumstances.
Options
Stanislav Byshok, CEO of the international watchdog CIS-EMO, suggested that everything would be resolved peacefully, with the participation of Germany - the country that has preliminarily agreed to receive refugees.
The problem is that the border is still closed. Polish border guards could be supplemented with military units to block any attempt to cross the border, and refugees would be forced to flee to other countries to cross into Europe.
The second option is for them to return home. The Iranian Embassy said it had begun working to bring them back to their homeland.
There is also a third option. Authorities in at least three German cities have said they are ready to receive migrants. They will be able to organize some forms of transportation and pick up migrants from the Polish-Belarus border to these cities.
There have been no land migrations
This is an unprecedented story for Europe. This time, the migrants do not travel by sea, according to tradition, but intend to cross the land border. But these refugees will not be allowed to go to Europe now. If this happens, a large number of migrants from Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Afghanistan may travel along this route. Therefore, the more these people suffer, the more beneficial it is for EU authorities.
It is believed that the situation would be resolved without provincial and deliberate border crossings, as the number of migrants was not too large to threaten Polish security forces as it appeared that the number of new migrants to Belarus would soon decrease.
Airlines refuse to transport citizens of some countries to Belarus, despite having visas and tickets in hand, while announcements of sanctions against Belarus have taken effect. At least for this reason, the number of people who want to enter Europe via the Polish-Belarus border will decrease.
Recently, a notice was issued that the Bavarian government and several other states have offered support in transporting migrants from Belarus to Germany. Therefore, if Poland does not allow migrants to pass through, Germany will likely negotiate with Belarus President Lukashenko to resolve the issue.
Poland's Border Guard, reinforced by military units, is strong enough to control the several thousand people and prevent them from encroaching. Poland will maintain its stance despite possible criticism from Europe.
The migrants themselves understand that it is difficult to cross the border because the Polish side has made it clear that they will not let anyone cross under any circumstances. On the other hand, the number of refugees is not too large, and they do not have enough strength to break through somewhere.
Another story has come as hundreds of thousands of people have gathered at the Turkish border. There are millions of people coming and going, you can't stop them. With only a few thousand people here, Poland will have enough strength to stop all breakthrough efforts.
