Unexpected forecast of gasoline prices in the operating session on April 10

Thạch Lam |

It is forecasted that in the next management period (April 10, 2025), gasoline prices will decrease after many consecutive weeks of increase.

According to a survey at 7:30 a.m. on April 6 (Vietnam time), WTI oil price decreased by 4.96 USD/barrel (down 7.41%), down to 61.99 USD/barrel. Brent oil price decreased by 4.56 USD/barrel (down 6.5%), down to 65.58 USD/barrel.

China, the world's top oil importer, has announced it will apply an additional 34% tax on all US goods from April 10. Other countries around the world are preparing to counter President Trump's tax increase to a rate of more than a century.

Goods such as natural gas, soybeans and gold have fallen sharply, while the global stock market has plummeted. JPMorgan Investment Bank currently estimates the likelihood of a global recession by the end of the year at 60%, up from 40% previously.

"For me, crude oil prices are getting closer to a reasonable value until we have clear signs of a reduction in real demand. In my opinion, WTI oil prices may fluctuate between 50 - 55 USD in the near future".

Shelton warned that demand may decline in the current market context.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stressed in his speech that the US central bank is facing difficult decisions. He said President Trump's new "greater-than-expected" tariffs could lead to economic consequences, including higher inflation and slower growth.

In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are under further pressure as they decide to promote plans to increase production. The group is currently aiming to bring 411,000 bins/day (bpd) back to the market by May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd.

In the domestic market, a petroleum business believes that domestic petroleum prices will fluctuate according to the world petroleum situation. According to current developments, it is forecasted that in the next price management period, retail prices of gasoline may decrease.

In particular, RON 95 gasoline price is forecast to decrease by about 200-350 VND/liter; E5 gasoline decreases by about 150-300 VND/liter; Diesel oil decreases by about 100-250 VND/liter.

Domestic retail gasoline prices on April 6, 2025 will be applied according to the adjustment session from 3:00 p.m. on January 3 of the Ministry of Finance - Ministry of Industry and Trade.

In the adjustment session on April 3, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline increased compared to the previous adjustment period, at VND 20,373/liter (up VND 341/liter). RON 95-III gasoline price increased compared to the previous adjustment period, priced at VND 20,919/liter (up VND 495/liter).

Prices of oil products have also increased simultaneously. Of which, diesel 0.05S is priced at VND18,478/liter (up VND261/liter); kerosene has a new price of VND18,735/liter (up VND11/liter); mazut is priced at VND17,026/kg (up VND124/kg).

Thạch Lam
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