Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market entered the weekend session with widespread red. Recorded in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, the purchase price has decreased sharply by 1,000 to 1,100 VND/kg compared to the previous trading session.
Specifically, in the coffee capital of Dak Lak and the old Dak Nong province, the current purchase price is 103,000 VND/kg.
Meanwhile, in Lam Dong province, the price has dropped sharply to VND 102,300/kg, the lowest among the surveyed localities.
In Gia Lai, coffee prices also recorded a decrease of VND 1,100/kg, bringing the trading price to VND 102,500/kg.
Looking back at the developments in the past week, the domestic coffee market has experienced strong fluctuations.
Compared to the opening price at the beginning of the week, the current coffee price has "evaporated" significantly, marking a difficult trading week.
This decrease clearly reflects the pressure from the new crop supply starting to be brought into the market, causing the supply-demand balance to gradually change. The fact that prices have continuously broken important support levels in the past week shows that cautious sentiment is dominating the market.
World coffee prices
In the international market, the world's two largest exchanges ended this week's trading session with unsatisfactory developments, profit-taking pressure and unfavorable macro factors.
At the end of the most recent trading session, Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe ( London) futures for delivery in January 2026 decreased by 7 USD, closing at 4,295 USD/ton. This is the lowest level in the past 2 weeks for this item.
Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US (New York) futures for delivery in March 2026 also decreased by 5.65 cents (equivalent to 1.48%), down to 417.80 cents/lb.
The main reason for Arabica prices to fall sharply in the last session of the weekend came from the weakening of the Brazilian Real. The currency has fallen to a seven-week low against the US dollar, which has prompted Brazilian manufacturers to boost sales to earn higher profits when converting foreign currencies.
In addition, pressure on Robusta prices increased after the Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that exports are on the rise, with about 10% of Vietnam's crop area harvested.
The forecast of drier weather in the Central Highlands this month will also create favorable conditions to speed up the harvest progress, bringing new supply to the market faster.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The coffee market is being affected by multi-dimensional information on supply and demand and international policies.
One factor that has caused significant downward pressure on prices is the fact that Conab (Brazil's seasonal forecasting agency) has just adjusted the estimated total coffee output in 2025 of this country to 56.54 million bags, an increase of 2.4% compared to the previous forecast. In addition, the European Parliament's official approval of the EUDR implementation by another year has somewhat relieved concerns about supply chain disruption, reducing pressure on reserve purchases.
However, the decline in coffee prices is still being held back by concerns about weather and inventories. Rainfall in Minas Gerais - Brazil's largest Arabica growing region - is currently below normal, reaching only 39% of the historical average in the last week of November, causing concerns about next crop productivity. Notably, inventory data on the ICE is at an alarming level. Robusta inventories have fallen to their lowest level in more than 11 months, while Arabica inventories have also fluctuated at a low level due to issues related to US import tariffs on goods from Brazil.
Regarding the upcoming trend, pressure from the new crop supply of Vietnam - the world's largest Robusta producer - will continue to be the main driving factor in the short term. Vicofa forecasts that the output in the 2025/2026 crop year could increase by 10% if the weather is favorable. However, with inventories in major consumer markets such as the US being tightened and weather risks not ending in South America, coffee prices are unlikely to fall too much and are likely to form a new price level after this adjustment period.
