Domestic coffee prices
On November 12, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions turned down, losing an average of VND 500/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region down to VND 118,200/kg.
Specifically, in Gia Lai, the prices decreased the most by 600 VND/kg, down to 118,000 VND/kg. Dak Lak and Dak Nong (old) both decreased by VND 500/kg, to VND 118,500/kg and VND 118,000/kg. Lam Dong suffered the slightest decrease of 300 VND/kg, to 117,300 VND/kg.
This decrease is a direct reaction of the domestic market after the world Robusta price decreased.
World coffee prices
The international coffee market (transacted on November 11) has had mixed developments.
Robusta ( London) slightly decreased by 5 USD/ton, closing at 4,618 USD/ton.
In contrast, Arabica (New York) continued to increase strongly by 7.95 US cents/lb (up 1.92%), closing at 422.70 US cents/lb - the highest level in 2.5 weeks.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
Today's trading session shows a clear differentiation of the market.
Reasons for Robusta's decline (neducated domestic prices): Robusta's upward momentum has been extinguished. The main reason is that Typhoon Kalmaegi, which was feared to have devastated the Central Highlands, has not ultimately caused significant damage to coffee growing areas. As the weather risk in Vietnam has passed, selling pressure has returned.
Reasons for Arabica's increase (despite Robusta's decrease): Arabica increased sharply due to the Brazilian Real surging to its highest level in 17 months. When the Real is strong, Brazilian farmers ( Arabica sellers) will earn less inland currency, so they stop selling, causing supply to be constrained and pushing prices up.
In addition, the market is still in a tug-of-war situation. The biggest supporting factor for prices is still extremely low international inventories ( Arabica is the lowest in 1.75 years; Robusta is the lowest in 3.75 months) due to the impact of US-Brazil tariffs.
However, the downward pressure is also very clear. Brazil's rainfall last week reached 160% of the average, easing concerns about drought. At the same time, Vietnam's 10-month coffee exports increased by 13.4% and the forecast of a bumper crop is still holding back Robusta prices.
The market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. Arabica prices are being supported by exchange rates, while Robusta is under pressure from actual supply in Vietnam.
